Part of: Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
This prediction market tracks whether the Federal Reserve leaves the upper bound of the federal funds target range unchanged after its September 2026 FOMC meeting. A YES outcome corresponds to a 0-basis-point change; the market resolves based on the rate change announced at the meeting on September 16, 2026. Current odds and smart money activity are available on PolySpotter.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
39 smart money signals detected, totaling $869,734.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy, CPI Release
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader placed a fresh $48,341 No position at 32¢ amid a 21x volume spike, making this a meaningful macro-market signal.
- This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up about $960,000 lifetime.
- They made a concentrated $48,341 bet that rates will change, buying No at 32¢.
- Trading volume is running 21x above its historical average, adding support to the directional move.
$48,341 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial sharp bettor sells Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 78% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a fresh bearish position against Yes at 70%.
- This bettor wins 78% of 1,061 resolved trades and is up $478,756 overall.
- The wallet has a 21-point edge over implied odds and has traded across 846 markets.
- Selling Yes at 70¢ is equivalent to buying No at about 30¢, despite Yes rising 22% over the past week.
$2,967 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Serial sharp bettor sells Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 78% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a fresh bearish position against Yes at 70%.
- This bettor wins 78% of 1,061 resolved trades and is up $478,756 overall.
- The wallet has a 21-point edge over implied odds and has traded across 846 markets.
- Selling Yes at 70¢ is equivalent to buying No at about 30¢, despite Yes rising 22% over the past week.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
94% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding $8,000 to Yes at 68% within a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 278 resolved trades and is up $229,333.
- The wallet is adding $8,000 to an existing Yes position at 68%, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- It is part of a 19-wallet network sharing a funder, with the cluster appearing repeatedly across prior alerts.
$8,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Veteran bettor scales into Yes
A highly experienced bettor with 89,000 resolved trades and positive edge added $34.7K to an existing Yes position amid a 30.9x volume spike and strong market momentum.
- This bettor has a 70% win rate across 89,008 resolved trades and is up about $501,000 lifetime.
- They added $34,654 to an existing Yes position, bringing their exposure above $95,000.
- The market has risen 22% over the past week while trading volume spiked to 30.9 times its historical average.
$4,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge
A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.
- This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
- The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
- The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.
$5,721 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
97% winner scales into Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 97% of 77 resolved trades and is up $57,032 lifetime.
- They are adding $4,500 to an existing Yes position at 64¢, signaling continued conviction.
- Trading volume is running 37.2 times its historical average while Yes has risen 22% over the past week.
$2,880 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
Five-wallet funded cluster adds Yes
A five-wallet shared-funder cluster is adding concentrated exposure to Yes amid strong upward momentum, though the trader is already positioned and lacks a clear odds-based edge.
- Five wallets sharing a funder have committed $6,000 toward unchanged Fed rates.
- The Yes price has risen 18% over the past week, supporting the cluster’s direction.
- This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, but its 80% win rate at 82¢ average entry is only modestly compelling.
$6,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
94% win-rate macro bettor
A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $3,511 purchase of Yes in a liquid Fed market.
- This bettor has won 94% of 1,817 resolved positions and earned $871,305 in profit.
- The $3,512 purchase is a fresh, concentrated bet on no rate change at 75¢.
- The market has already risen 11% over the past week, supporting the bettor’s direction.
$3,512 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
97% winner scales into Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 97% of 77 resolved trades and is up $57,032 lifetime.
- They are adding $4,500 to an existing Yes position at 64¢, signaling continued conviction.
- Trading volume is running 37.2 times its historical average while Yes has risen 22% over the past week.
$1,221 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $4,478,038
- 0xfbe6...00f8 — Yes, $522,346 (100% win rate)
- 0x0111...60f7 — Yes, $279,711 (36% win rate)
- 0xb1a2...372a — Yes, $166,159 (73% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $157,940 (63% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Yes, $153,748 (43% win rate)
- 0xf559...f462 — Yes, $132,661 (91% win rate)
- 0x4340...64c4 — Yes, $115,000 (50% win rate)
- 0x7b02...4991 — Yes, $100,329 (57% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $100,000 (67% win rate)
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