Part of: Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will make no change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at its September 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves based on the basis-point change versus the level before the meeting, with resolution expected on September 16, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,602 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,599.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy
Notable Trades
Sharp macro cross-market bettor
Sharp macro/cross-market wallet with an 83% resolved win rate and +$426k P&L bought Yes on a Fed rates market, making the trader profile the main signal.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $426k lifetime.
- They have traded across 135 events with over $5M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $3.6k buy was nearly a full day’s prior volume for the signal window, adding conviction at 55¢.
$3,602 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Perfect-record macro bettor
Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a perfect 14-0 resolved record and $62k in lifetime profit.
- This bettor is 14-for-14 on resolved trades and is up $62,264 lifetime.
- They put nearly $8,000 on Yes at 75¢, a large single bet versus recent market activity.
- The market is liquid enough to copy, with a tight 1¢ spread around their entry.
$7,997 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $87,028
- 0xfbe6...00f8 — Yes, $40,541 (100% win rate)
- 0xaf28...7f92 — No, $27,918 (69% win rate)
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $6,795 (56% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $6,583 (47% win rate)
- 0xe801...6a86 — Yes, $6,500
- 0x1c3e...176d — Yes, $6,100 (30% win rate)
- 0xeb6f...25f0 — Yes, $5,016 (74% win rate)
- 0x61ea...bbf7 — Yes, $4,000 (43% win rate)
- 0xad8e...776e — Yes, $3,510 (86% win rate)
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