Part of: What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

27 smart money signals detected, totaling $111,446.

Categories: Trump, Politics, China, Mentions, Trump-Xi Summit

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large long-term edge flipped into Yes after previously closing a No position on the same market.

This bettor has won 68% of 830 resolved trades and is up about $752K lifetime.
They are a serial event trader, active across 80 events and 121 related markets.
They previously closed a No position here and are now buying Yes at 75¢.

$1,822 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable whale buying Yes

Despite a weak standalone price-impact signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a very large profitable track record and is buying into a fast-moving, high-volume market.

This bettor is up about $1.36M lifetime across more than $72M traded.
They bought Yes at 82¢ after a rapid 12-point move, showing conviction despite the higher price.
The market is extremely active, with about $975K traded in the last 24 hours and Yes up 36 points on the day.

$1,645 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%

Profitable sharp buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with an 81% resolved win rate bought $3,000 of Yes despite only weak automated signals.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $14.9k lifetime.
They put $3,000 on Yes at 79¢, signaling confidence despite the market already pricing Yes as likely.
Yes has moved up 32 points in the last day, and this trade follows strong market momentum.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

92% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 92% record bought Yes despite only moderate cross-market/price-impact signals.

This bettor has won 36 of 39 resolved trades and is up $2.6K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 72¢ while also trading another market in the same Trump-Xi event.
The market has heavy recent activity, with nearly $915K traded in 24 hours and Yes up 23 points on the day.

$1,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

76% winner buying Yes

Surfaced via sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 76% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L despite only a modest-sized buy.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $18,408 lifetime.
Their record beats the odds by about 19 percentage points across 169 resolved bets.
They bought Yes at 80¢ after a sharp one-day move, showing conviction despite the recent pullback.

$1,067 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial trader flips No

Serial cross-market trader with substantial lifetime profit flipped from a prior Yes position into No as the No price moved sharply upward.

This bettor is up $527k lifetime and has traded across 77 events with over $6.3M in tracked volume.
They closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 21¢, signaling a clear change in view.
No jumped about 15 points in under 4 minutes, suggesting fast momentum behind the same side.

$1,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

85% winner buying spike

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 85% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a large pre-event volume surge and strong 1-day price momentum.

This bettor has won 85% of 46 resolved trades, a strong track record despite modest total profit.
The market is seeing a 30x volume spike, with over $841k traded in the last 24 hours.
Buying at 86¢ follows a huge 36-point move in the past day, signaling momentum behind Yes.

$1,098 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable serial trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No after a sharp move, making the wallet track record the main reason to surface despite a modest composite score.

This bettor has traded 65 markets across 50 events and is up $734k lifetime.
They have over 1,000 resolved bets, giving this track record more weight than a small-sample spike.
They bought No at 20¢ after a fast move, implying a roughly 5x payout if Trump does not say the term.

$1,433 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

84% winner fading Yes

Surfaced despite a weak standalone price-impact signal because the trader has an 84% win rate across 1,001 resolved bets and is taking the contrarian No side after a rapid Yes selloff.

This bettor has won 84% of 1,001 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
They sold Yes at 77¢, which is equivalent to backing No at 23¢.
Yes is still up 22 points today, but this trade follows a fast 12-point drop against it.

$1,480 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Repeat new-wallet bettor

Surface as a repeat new-wallet bettor with $40k in recent flagged positions, cross-market event exposure, and a fresh Yes buy on a fast-moving Trump/Xi phrase market.

This 7-day-old wallet has now made 14 flagged bets totaling about $40k.
The bettor is positioning across multiple Trump/Xi wording markets, suggesting a focused event thesis.
They bought Yes at 89¢, while the market is now around 84¢ after a major 1-day move.

$1,508 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

0x9952...9cba — Outcome 31868121, $1,069,129 (89% win rate)
0xf8b5...cb5c — Outcome 31868121, $636,498
0x0739...aba8 — Outcome 31868121, $436,216
0x3658...5c34 — Outcome 31868121, $420,069
0xeb75...27a3 — Outcome 31868121, $373,312 (68% win rate)
0xafd2...9693 — Outcome 31868121, $308,358 (27% win rate)
0x152f...a549 — Outcome 31868121, $229,215 (22% win rate)
0x425b...18f1 — Outcome 31868121, $213,510
0xcebf...832e — Outcome 31868121, $203,045
0x6b5a...b691 — Outcome 31868121, $200,200

Related Theses

Iran deal before mid-June

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Peru elects right-wing president

Covers 3 related markets

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

ResolvedWhat will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? $111,446 tracked27 signalsTrumpPoliticsChinaMentionsTrump-Xi Summit

Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.