Part of: LA Mayoral Election: Who will advance to the 2nd round?

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,842.

Categories: Elections, US Election, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, Los Angeles, Politics, LA Mayor

Notable Trades

Profitable serial political trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 67% win rate and nearly $280k lifetime profit is buying Yes on a politically plausible, fast-moving LA mayoral market.

This bettor has won 67% of 1,089 resolved trades and is up about $280k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 98 markets and 63 events.
Bought Yes at 66¢ after a fast 20-point dip, while the market is still up 35 points this week.

$2,147 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Sharp bettor buying dip

Sharp wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 66¢ on a politically meaningful market after a sharp price move.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $5.5k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 66¢ after a fast price drop, suggesting conviction rather than chasing.
The market has strong momentum, up 18 points today and 31.5 points this week.

$2,809 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume political trader bought the Yes dip during a fast-moving LA mayoral market with major recent momentum.

This bettor has a long track record: 1,312 resolved trades and $634k in lifetime profit.
They bought Yes at 59¢ during a sharp pullback, and the market has already rebounded to 62¢.
The market is moving fast, with Yes up 38 points in the past day on $147k of 24h volume.

$2,294 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

89% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and nearly $99k profit is effectively buying Yes on Bass/Raman advancing.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades across 1,357 markets and is up about $99k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 279 events with $1.36M+ traded.
Selling No at 48¢ is effectively a Yes buy at 52¢, into a market already up 25.5 points today.

$1,841 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

89% serial cross-market winner

A highly proven cross-market trader with an 89% win rate is effectively buying Yes at 38¢ after strong upward momentum in this LA mayoral runoff pairing market.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets across 1,357 markets and is up about $99k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.36M deployed across 330 markets in 279 events.
Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 38¢, after the market rose 23 points this week.

$1,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a $3.2k No position as part of $9.6k in related LA mayoral bets.

This bettor is up $271k across 1,087 resolved trades.
They regularly trade related markets, with activity across 63 events and 97 markets.
The No buy at 64¢ goes against a sharp recent move toward Yes, making it a notable contrarian position.

$3,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Sharp politics bettor buying Yes

Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved win rate bought Yes into a high-volume spike on a politics market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $79.8K lifetime.
Market volume spiked nearly 70x, with over $43K traded in the past day.
Entry at 26¢ implies roughly a 3.8x payout if this runoff pairing happens.

$1,821 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

88% serial politics bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate bought No during a major volume spike on a political market.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $97k lifetime.
They have traded across 279 events with $1.36M total deployed, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Market volume spiked 260x above normal as they bought No at 81¢.

$1,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

88% winner buying No

Surface this: a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate and positive lifetime P&L put $11.2k on No amid a major volume spike.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 1,355 bets and is up $97k lifetime.
They put $11.2k on No in four quick buys at 81¢, a large position for this market.
Market volume spiked 856x versus its normal pace, suggesting unusual attention around this outcome.

$11,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 89396343, $218,299
0x364f...1515 — Outcome 89396343, $11,415
0x0952...a44b — Outcome 89396343, $10,000
0x7804...7025 — Outcome 89396343, $7,949 (71% win rate)
0xafe6...8192 — Outcome 89396343, $6,079 (85% win rate)
0x640d...58b9 — Outcome 89396343, $1,914
0xb799...06a1 — Outcome 89396343, $994
0xaa68...94a7 — Outcome 89396343, $949 (59% win rate)
0x45cc...6400 — Outcome 89396343, $505 (74% win rate)
0x1135...4c1b — Outcome 89396343, $306

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Iran leadership changes after May

Covers 3 related markets

Iran uranium markets mispriced

Covers 3 related markets

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

ResolvedLA Mayoral Election: Who will advance to the 2nd round?$27,842 tracked9 signalsElectionsUS ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos AngelesPoliticsLA Mayor

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.