Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,933.
Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt
Notable Trades
86% win-rate serial trader
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $61.7K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 151 events and over $1.1M in flagged volume.
- Buying Yes at 89¢ shows high conviction despite the market already pricing GPT-5.6 as likely.
$1,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
86% win-rate serial trader
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $61.7K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 151 events and over $1.1M in flagged volume.
- Buying Yes at 89¢ shows high conviction despite the market already pricing GPT-5.6 as likely.
$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial thesis trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No at 11¢ on an AI release market with recent momentum against Yes.
- This bettor has won 70% of 1,050 resolved trades and is up $53K lifetime.
- They bought No at 11¢ while the market has been moving down, with No now around 14¢.
- The wallet trades across many related markets, with 48 markets across 32 events tracked.
$1,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable AI contrarian
A profitable 80% winner is taking a contrarian No position across related GPT release markets, though the price has moved against their entry.
- This bettor has won 80% of resolved bets and is up $1.6K lifetime.
- They bought No at 15¢ against a market pricing Yes near 90%, implying a contrarian release-timing view.
- This is part of a two-market GPT-release thesis, but the price has since moved against their entry.
$1,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
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