Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make a model explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a qualifying direct successor such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-5.8, available to the general public by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket odds for this market along with smart money activity, including $1,523 tracked across 1 signal so far. The market resolves “Yes” if the qualifying public release happens by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,523.

Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt

Notable Trades

Profitable AI contrarian

A profitable 80% winner is taking a contrarian No position across related GPT release markets, though the price has moved against their entry.

  • This bettor has won 80% of resolved bets and is up $1.6K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 15¢ against a market pricing Yes near 90%, implying a contrarian release-timing view.
  • This is part of a two-market GPT-release thesis, but the price has since moved against their entry.

$1,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1695...2842 No, $16,184 (78% win rate)
  2. 0xb2f5...2f29 No, $13,469 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x6748...151b No, $10,088 (80% win rate)
  4. 0xcbfa...1f40 Yes, $5,000
  5. 0xa28c...e10f Yes, $5,000
  6. 0x9604...fc1d Yes, $3,996 (83% win rate)
  7. 0x4d1b...1419 Yes, $3,637 (70% win rate)
  8. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $3,128 (60% win rate)
  9. 0x2e1c...db61 Yes, $2,067
  10. 0xe828...5cea Yes, $2,000

Related Theses

GPT-5.6 delayed past July

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

60dGPT-5.6 released by...?$1,523 tracked1 signalAIOpenAITechgpt
Yes
86¢
No
14¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
83¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

2h ago

$1,523 on No at 15¢

15¢14¢1¢

Related Theses