Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make a model explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a qualifying successor such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-5.8, available to the general public by July 31, 2026 ET. PolySpotter tracks $2,283 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including alerts from profitable AI and high win-rate serial traders.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,933.

Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt

Notable Trades

86% win-rate serial trader

Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the individual bet size is modest.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $61.7K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 151 events and over $1.1M in flagged volume.
  • Buying Yes at 89¢ shows high conviction despite the market already pricing GPT-5.6 as likely.

$1,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

86% win-rate serial trader

Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the individual bet size is modest.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $61.7K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 151 events and over $1.1M in flagged volume.
  • Buying Yes at 89¢ shows high conviction despite the market already pricing GPT-5.6 as likely.

$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial thesis trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No at 11¢ on an AI release market with recent momentum against Yes.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 1,050 resolved trades and is up $53K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 11¢ while the market has been moving down, with No now around 14¢.
  • The wallet trades across many related markets, with 48 markets across 32 events tracked.

$1,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable AI contrarian

A profitable 80% winner is taking a contrarian No position across related GPT release markets, though the price has moved against their entry.

  • This bettor has won 80% of resolved bets and is up $1.6K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 15¢ against a market pricing Yes near 90%, implying a contrarian release-timing view.
  • This is part of a two-market GPT-release thesis, but the price has since moved against their entry.

$1,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb94c...4c0c Outcome 99347735, $16,261
  2. 0x1e1f...c855 Outcome 99347735, $10,000 (58% win rate)
  3. 0x6974...6256 Outcome 99347735, $5,000
  4. 0x54fb...e7f3 Outcome 99347735, $4,943 (92% win rate)
  5. 0x8b20...38ff Outcome 99347735, $4,473
  6. 0x30f9...fbfc Outcome 99347735, $2,210
  7. 0x7b75...3fd1 Outcome 99347735, $2,000 (51% win rate)
  8. 0x4d45...1ed1 Outcome 99347735, $1,760
  9. 0xc28d...1773 Outcome 99347735, $1,370 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x9c8e...2bb0 Outcome 99347735, $1,288

Related Theses

Iran peace deal timing arbitrage

Covers 6 related markets

Fed won’t cut by 2026

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 1 related market

GameStop won't acquire eBay

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

11dGPT-5.6 released by...?$4,933 tracked4 signalsAIOpenAITechgpt

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

22d ago

$1,022 on Yes at 89¢

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

22d ago

$1,261 on Yes at 89¢

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

23d ago

$1,127 on No at 11¢

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

49d ago

$1,523 on No at 15¢

Related Theses