Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,170.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Moderately compelling event-driven bet from a repeat flagged, profitable wallet building a cross-market thesis in a thin AI/news market.

  • This wallet is up about $50.9k lifetime and has been flagged 54 times before.
  • It has put $11.4k across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market is thin, and this $1.7k buy at 80¢ was meaningful versus available liquidity.

$1,744 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Repeat whale across five markets

A repeat large bettor with positive lifetime P&L is building a Yes position across several related markets in a relatively thin AI-policy market.

  • This repeat bettor is up about $50.9k lifetime and is adding to a broader AI-policy thesis.
  • They bought $3.4k of Yes in a market with only $8.3k of liquidity, making this a meaningful conviction bet.
  • The same wallet has $11.4k spread across 5 related markets, suggesting coordinated positioning rather than a one-off trade.

$3,427 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0x12df...6a3d Outcome 71368547, $6,902 (63% win rate)
  2. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 71368547, $4,710 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x43ca...d04c Outcome 71368547, $3,333
  4. 0x24fb...973e Outcome 71368547, $2,848 (69% win rate)
  5. 0x2c55...dbb9 Outcome 71368547, $2,500 (57% win rate)
  6. 0xabdd...970e Outcome 71368547, $2,007
  7. 0x1dd1...a156 Outcome 71368547, $1,137 (53% win rate)
  8. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 71368547, $597 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x0c18...a04c Outcome 71368547, $419 (29% win rate)
  10. 0x419f...e853 Outcome 71368547, $400

Related Theses

Iran deal before June

Covers 5 related markets

US-Iran meeting by July

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran talks after June 19

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran talks won't extend

Covers 1 related market

Fable 5 returns by July 2

Covers 5 related markets

US-Iran deal coming soon

Covers 2 related markets

Israel extends ceasefire soon

Covers 3 related markets

Iran stays in negotiations

Covers 2 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$5,170 tracked2 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?

18d ago

$1,744 on Yes at 80¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?

18d ago

$3,427 on Yes at 81¢

Related Theses