Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he is removed, detained, prevented from acting as leader, or otherwise loses de facto power; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,357 in smart money activity, including one signal and recent sharp interest favoring NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,877.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market trader
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is adding a small Yes position as part of a broader Iran thesis, though the signal is moderate rather than strong.
- This bettor is up $311K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
- They have traded 74 markets across 46 related events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 14¢ implies a high-upside view on a low-probability political outcome.
$1,357 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Serial cross-market sharp cluster
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate and very large prior volume across related markets.
- A serial cross-market bettor with a 93% win record has traded across 148 events and $2.9M total volume.
- Three wallets bought the same No outcome within minutes, adding $6.5K of coordinated one-way flow.
- The strongest wallet is positioning across 4 related markets with $163K traded, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
$6,457 on No
93% serial cross-market trader
Serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a large multi-market Iran leadership thesis, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,173 resolved bets, with over $11.8M previously invested.
- They are active across 4 related markets in this event, totaling $163K in the same broader thesis.
- This trade buys No at 82¢, suggesting confidence that Iran's leadership will not change by the deadline.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
A perfect-history wallet is making a cross-market Iran leadership thesis, but the edge is moderated because its wins were mostly high-probability favorites.
- This bettor has won 43 of 43 resolved trades and is up $8.5K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 3 related markets in the same event, totaling $13.9K.
- This is a conservative entry at 89¢ on No, matching the market’s current favorite side.
$1,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% resolved win rate is reinforcing a broader $45k thesis across six related Iran leadership markets.
- This bettor has won 69% of 408 resolved trades and is up $256,739 lifetime.
- They have $44,989 positioned across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
- Buying No at 90¢ fits the market momentum, with Yes down 11 points over the past week.
$1,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
34-0 cross-market favorite bettor
A 34-0 bettor is adding to a broader cross-market No thesis on Iran leadership-change markets, though the trade is a relatively low-upside favorite bet.
- This bettor has won 34 of 34 resolved bets and is up about $6.7K lifetime.
- They have placed $14.2K across 3 related markets, all pointing to the same Iran leadership-change thesis.
- Entry at 90¢ is a low-upside favorite bet, but it follows the market’s recent move toward No.
$1,543 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly active cross-market trader is building a $41K multi-market thesis on the same event, though their high win rate is tempered by negative lifetime P&L.
- This bettor has 1,182 resolved trades with a 76% hit rate across many markets.
- They have placed $41K across 6 related markets, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 89¢ on No aligns with recent market movement toward lower leadership-change odds.
$3,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable geopolitical cross-market trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is rebuilding a No position on an Iran leadership market, with $44.5k positioned across related markets.
- This bettor has traded 76 related-event markets and is up $128k lifetime.
- They have $44.5k positioned across 3 markets in this same event.
- Buying No at 85¢ suggests they expect leadership change odds to stay low.
$3,590 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is building a Yes position across related Iran leadership markets, with $42.9k total event exposure.
- This bettor is profitable with a 64% record across 39 resolved bets.
- They have traded 64 markets across 35 events, showing a repeat pattern of event-level positioning.
- They now have $42.9k across related Iran leadership markets, buying Yes at 15¢.
$4,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
34-for-34 cross-market bettor
A 34-for-34 wallet is building a $12.5k cross-market Iran leadership thesis and added to No as the market moves in that direction.
- This bettor is 34-for-34 on resolved trades and is up $6.7k lifetime.
- They have placed $12.5k across 3 related Iran leadership markets, suggesting a clear thesis.
- No is already moving their way, with Yes down 6 points today and 8.5 points this week.
$1,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $35,129 (66% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $25,000 (34% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $21,529 (86% win rate)
- 0xb100...6461 — No, $21,499 (58% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $20,806 (75% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $19,614 (57% win rate)
- 0x836f...906e — No, $19,039 (100% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $17,127 (78% win rate)
- 0x862f...fc3c — Yes, $14,880
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $14,349 (47% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal in late May
Covers 5 related markets
Peace deal lands mid-May
Covers 5 related markets
