Iran leadership change by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $42,640.

Notable Trades

83% winner cross-market thesis

A high-volume cross-market trader with an 83% win rate sold No at 90¢ here, effectively taking the Yes side at 10¢ across a broader event thesis.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved markets and is up $578k across $9.5M traded
They have bet nearly $5.0M across 130 events and are active in 4 related Iran markets
Selling No at 90¢ is the same as buying Yes at 10¢, a cheap entry if their broader thesis is right

$3,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Iran leadership change by April 30?

A very new wallet with early profits and a perfect 8-for-8 record just made another large, repeated bet, putting $26.8k into No on a major geopolitics market.

This 7-day-old wallet is already up $16.9k and has won all 8 of its resolved bets
It has made 11 large flagged bets totaling $96.6k, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off punt
The trader bought No at 90¢ in a deep geopolitics market, backing the status quo with size

$26,820 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Iran leadership change by April 30?

A proven high-volume trader with a 71% win rate is re-entering No on this Iran leadership market as part of a broader cross-market event thesis.

This bettor has won 782 of 1,096 resolved markets and is up about $180k overall
They are trading across 3 related markets in the same event with about $48k deployed, which points to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
This is a fresh No position at 90¢ after a prior No trade was closed, showing renewed conviction even at a high implied probability

$3,811 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Iran leadership change by April 30?

A 6-day-old wallet has already made 10 large flagged bets totaling nearly $70k and just put another $5.1k into No at 89¢ on a major geopolitics market, suggesting concentrated early conviction rather than routine flow.

This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 10 large-bet alerts totaling about $69.8k
It just added $5.1k on No at 89¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market, showing clear conviction
The wallet is early but already profitable, up about $1.9k on $14.7k invested

$5,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Iran leadership change by April 30?

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 72% hit rate is making a fresh $3.3k bet on No in a major geopolitics market, which is worth watching despite the price slipping after entry.

This wallet has won 390 of 545 resolved bets, a 72% hit rate across 500+ events
They are trading related markets as part of a broader thesis and put $3.3k into No at 80¢ here
This is a liquid, news-driven geopolitics market, so a proven cross-market bettor is worth following even after the price moved to 74¢

$3,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%