Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,311.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
93% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No near 90¢ on a Strait of Hormuz transit bracket market.
- This bettor has won 14 of 15 resolved bets and is up about $6.3K lifetime.
- They bought No at 90¢, aligning with the market’s current 92% No pricing.
- Their past wins came at much tougher average odds of 57%, suggesting a real track record rather than just favorite-betting.
$1,914 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying Yes after major upward momentum in a specialized shipping-data market.
- This bettor wins 64% of resolved trades and is up $231,798 lifetime.
- They have traded 409 related markets across 181 events, showing a repeat pattern in these bracket-style markets.
- Yes is up 22 points today, and the 50¢ entry suggests they see room beyond the current coin-flip price.
$1,396 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $29,461
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $23,216 (51% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $5,682 (69% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $4,511 (58% win rate)
- 0x993c...6787 — No, $4,000 (40% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $3,355 (64% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Yes, $2,735 (83% win rate)
- 0x80f1...3ccd — No, $2,127 (93% win rate)
- 0x25db...28de — No, $1,771 (49% win rate)
- 0x88e2...7489 — No, $1,750 (42% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 5 related markets