Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of all commercial aviation across Iran or the Tehran FIR by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market has recorded $5,762 in tracked smart-money activity, including signals involving positions on both Yes and No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,570.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
78% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with 78% win rate and +$81k lifetime P&L bought No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only modest signal strength.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $81k lifetime.
- They bought No at 59¢, and the market has already moved to about 64¢.
- The market is geopolitics-driven, where informed views can matter more than broad liquidity.
$5,762 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp trader exits large Yes position
A proven serial trader with an 85% win rate is cutting a large Yes position, signaling increased conviction that Iran will not fully close its airspace by the deadline.
- This bettor has won 85% of 68 resolved trades and earned $212,438 in reported P&L.
- They sold $1,295 of Yes after previously investing $20,000 at a 48¢ average, reinforcing a bearish shift despite taking a loss.
- The wallet has traded across 39 events and 53 markets, indicating an established cross-market track record rather than a one-off bet.
$1,295 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Funded cluster scaling into No
Three wallets from a six-wallet funded cluster bought $10.1K of No in a 560x volume spike, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite mixed trader records.
- Three wallets bought $10,101 of No within 35 seconds, representing substantial conviction in a market with $16,432 liquidity.
- The trades came from a six-wallet cluster sharing a funder, while the market experienced a 560x spike versus its historical volume.
- One participating bettor is up $57,969 with a 68% win rate over 72 resolved markets, though other wallet records are more mixed.
$10,101 on No
93% winner caught early move
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 93% winner bought Yes at 44¢ before a major move to 60¢ on a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 44¢ before the market moved to 60¢, suggesting strong timing.
- The market has jumped 25 points in a day, matching this wallet’s direction.
$1,294 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable cross-market sharp
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is buying No as part of a broader Iran-airspace thesis across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $52.7K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 27 events, 42 markets, and $212K traded.
- This is part of a broader $16.8K position across three related markets.
$3,363 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market sharp
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is buying No as part of a broader Iran-airspace thesis across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $52.7K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 27 events, 42 markets, and $212K traded.
- This is part of a broader $16.8K position across three related markets.
$5,928 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
93% winner caught early move
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 93% winner bought Yes at 44¢ before a major move to 60¢ on a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 44¢ before the market moved to 60¢, suggesting strong timing.
- The market has jumped 25 points in a day, matching this wallet’s direction.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
78% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with 78% win rate and +$81k lifetime P&L bought No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only modest signal strength.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $81k lifetime.
- They bought No at 59¢, and the market has already moved to about 64¢.
- The market is geopolitics-driven, where informed views can matter more than broad liquidity.
$1,827 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $41,672 (69% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $39,314 (67% win rate)
- 0x524d...4495 — Yes, $13,406 (75% win rate)
- 0xff99...5602 — Yes, $11,645 (75% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $9,770 (70% win rate)
- 0xb37a...f1b1 — No, $8,981 (53% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — No, $8,618 (80% win rate)
- 0x32f9...9158 — Yes, $6,739
- 0xb51b...b4d9 — No, $5,909 (61% win rate)
- 0x07e1...27af — No, $5,594
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