Iran full airspace closure by...?
54 signals across 8 markets · $268,533 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Iran will initiate a general closure of its airspace, including outcomes for closure by July 15 and by July 31. PolySpotter has tracked about $6,002 in smart money activity across the event, with recent alerts pointing to sharp and high-win-rate traders buying NO.
Markets (8)
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?11 signals · $102,708 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?25 signals · $101,234 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by August 31?8 signals · $30,570 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by July 24?2 signals · $11,858 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by July 21?1 signal · $7,051 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by July 27?2 signals · $6,637 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?3 signals · $6,410 tracked
- Iran full airspace closure by August 15?2 signals · $2,065 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Funded cluster backs No
A concentrated $10.9K No position, including a 91% winner and wallets linked through a 17-wallet funding cluster, is notable despite some Yes sells being routine profit-taking.
$10,850Score: 10.8 - Linked wallets buying Yes
A linked 5-wallet cluster with profitable geopolitical bettors is collectively buying Yes, with several wallets adding despite the market now trading below their entries.
$21,655Score: 10.6 - 93% winner bought early
A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 10.5 - Funded cluster scaling into No
Three wallets from a six-wallet funded cluster bought $10.1K of No in a 560x volume spike, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite mixed trader records.
$10,101Score: 9.9 - Profitable cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader placed a large $72.9k No bet amid an 81x volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade candidate despite the market being fairly liquid.
$72,881Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 9.8 - 93% winner bought early
A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought Yes at 13¢ alongside cross-market positioning and a sharp price move upward.
$1,333Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 9.7 - 17-wallet cluster backs No
A proven 81% winner joined a 17-wallet funded cluster to sell Yes, creating a notable coordinated bearish signal despite only one recorded trade.
$1,082Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 9.2 - 96% winner buying NO
A highly proven bettor with a 96% win rate and $315k lifetime profit is buying No on the Iran airspace closure market.
$1,365Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.0 - Six-wallet funded cluster buys No
A six-wallet funded cluster is positioning on No, making this a notable coordinated trade despite the individual bettor's modest track record.
$1,045Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.5 - Profitable cross-market sharp
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is buying No as part of a broader Iran-airspace thesis across three related markets.
$5,928Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$96,614 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$25,171 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x9592ad…a7b8$24,123 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$22,165 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xd10491…acef$8,347 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xd10917…6fa0$7,589 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$5,613 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$3,795 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 94% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$3,564 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x122cb9…fbed$3,372 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 60% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran fully closes its airspace?
The odds are reflected across the event’s child markets, including whether a full Iranian airspace closure happens by July 15 or by July 31. PolySpotter tracks those Polymarket prices along with smart money activity to show how expectations are changing.
What counts as a full Iran airspace closure for this market?
The market resolves Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace that applies broadly to commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace, known as the Tehran FIR. Limited cancellations, weather-only disruptions, or narrow route changes generally would not qualify.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran airspace market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show a profitable sharp and an 81% winner buying NO, suggesting notable smart money skepticism that a qualifying full closure will occur by the listed deadlines.
Which outcomes are being traded in this event?
This event covers multiple related Polymarket markets, including whether Iran fully closes its airspace by July 15 and whether it does so by July 31. Traders can price different timelines rather than only a single yes-or-no outcome.
When does the Iran airspace closure event resolve?
Each child market resolves based on whether a qualifying general closure occurs before its specified deadline, such as July 15 or July 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The event hub aggregates those related markets for easier tracking.