Iran full airspace closure by...?
4 signals across 3 markets · $13,011 tracked · resolves Aug 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Iran will initiate a general closure of its airspace, including outcomes for closure by July 15 and by July 31. PolySpotter has tracked about $6,002 in smart money activity across the event, with recent alerts pointing to sharp and high-win-rate traders buying NO.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 81% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 81% winner bought $4.4k of No on a geopolitical airspace market while also trading a related event market.
$5,182Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 4.0 - 81% winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 81% winner bought $4.4k of No on a geopolitical airspace market while also trading a related event market.
$4,434Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 3.0 - 78% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with 78% win rate and +$81k lifetime P&L bought No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only modest signal strength.
$1,827Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 3.0 - Profitable sharp buying NO
Surfaced despite a low composite score because the buyer is a proven profitable wallet adding a meaningful No bet in a thin geopolitical market.
$1,569Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 1.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbf961d…9942$11,184 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xd10917…6fa0$1,827 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran fully closes its airspace?
The odds are reflected across the event’s child markets, including whether a full Iranian airspace closure happens by July 15 or by July 31. PolySpotter tracks those Polymarket prices along with smart money activity to show how expectations are changing.
What counts as a full Iran airspace closure for this market?
The market resolves Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace that applies broadly to commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace, known as the Tehran FIR. Limited cancellations, weather-only disruptions, or narrow route changes generally would not qualify.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran airspace market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show a profitable sharp and an 81% winner buying NO, suggesting notable smart money skepticism that a qualifying full closure will occur by the listed deadlines.
Which outcomes are being traded in this event?
This event covers multiple related Polymarket markets, including whether Iran fully closes its airspace by July 15 and whether it does so by July 31. Traders can price different timelines rather than only a single yes-or-no outcome.
When does the Iran airspace closure event resolve?
Each child market resolves based on whether a qualifying general closure occurs before its specified deadline, such as July 15 or July 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The event hub aggregates those related markets for easier tracking.