Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,709.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East
Notable Trades
Profitable serial contrarian
Profitable serial cross-market trader flipped into a small contrarian No position during a massive volume spike, though the trade has moved sharply against them since entry.
- This bettor is up $1.64M lifetime across 910 resolved bets.
- They trade many related event markets and have a 64% win rate over 52 events.
- They bought No at 13¢ during a huge volume surge, taking the other side of a market now pricing Yes near certainty.
$1,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
90% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and 33-point price move upward.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $153K lifetime.
- They have traded 124 markets across 72 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Yes surged 33 points with a 636x volume spike, and this wallet bought into the move at 83¢.
$1,581 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable cluster fading consensus
A 5-wallet profitable cluster took the contrarian No side during an 818x volume spike, though some Yes sells look like profit-taking and the market has moved against their entries.
- Five wallets put $8.5K on No while the market prices Yes around 89%.
- This came during an 818x volume spike, with 24h volume jumping to $325K on a normally quieter market.
- One cross-market trader in the flow has traded 52 events with a 64% win rate and $3.47M in tracked volume.
$8,462 on No
Profitable trader-led Yes cluster
Three wallets bought Yes in a coordinated $7.9k push on a thin geopolitical market, including a highly profitable serial cross-market trader, though the current price has fallen well below their entries.
- A trader up $1.64M lifetime joined this Yes push, with 910 resolved bets and activity across 51 events.
- Three wallets bought the same side for $7.9k, larger than the market’s $4.5k listed liquidity.
- Their buys hit at 79–88¢ and moved the price sharply, while the current market is much cheaper at about 29¢.
$7,871 on Yes
81% serial macro trader
Serial cross-market trader with an 81% long-run win rate bought No at 75¢ on an Israel ceasefire-extension market.
- This bettor has won 81% of 1,693 resolved bets across 127 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $644K flagged across 45 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading approach.
- They bought No at 75¢ while the market sits near 73%, backing the view that no extension announcement comes by the deadline.
$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xfd2b...8e50 — Outcome 94403688, $212,581 (56% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 94403688, $200,000 (20% win rate)
- 0x1fa1...1fa9 — Outcome 94403688, $100,000 (29% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 94403688, $97,126 (82% win rate)
- 0xb98e...ecee — Outcome 94403688, $70,789 (51% win rate)
- 0x72ef...f569 — Outcome 94403688, $50,000
- 0x0a2d...5349 — Outcome 94403688, $41,681
- 0x36b4...ac80 — Outcome 94403688, $40,109 (25% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 94403688, $25,556 (18% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Outcome 94403688, $22,500 (36% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran ceasefire will collapse
Covers 3 related markets
