Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,709.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East

Notable Trades

Profitable serial contrarian

Profitable serial cross-market trader flipped into a small contrarian No position during a massive volume spike, though the trade has moved sharply against them since entry.

  • This bettor is up $1.64M lifetime across 910 resolved bets.
  • They trade many related event markets and have a 64% win rate over 52 events.
  • They bought No at 13¢ during a huge volume surge, taking the other side of a market now pricing Yes near certainty.

$1,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

90% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and 33-point price move upward.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $153K lifetime.
  • They have traded 124 markets across 72 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Yes surged 33 points with a 636x volume spike, and this wallet bought into the move at 83¢.

$1,581 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable cluster fading consensus

A 5-wallet profitable cluster took the contrarian No side during an 818x volume spike, though some Yes sells look like profit-taking and the market has moved against their entries.

  • Five wallets put $8.5K on No while the market prices Yes around 89%.
  • This came during an 818x volume spike, with 24h volume jumping to $325K on a normally quieter market.
  • One cross-market trader in the flow has traded 52 events with a 64% win rate and $3.47M in tracked volume.

$8,462 on No

Profitable trader-led Yes cluster

Three wallets bought Yes in a coordinated $7.9k push on a thin geopolitical market, including a highly profitable serial cross-market trader, though the current price has fallen well below their entries.

  • A trader up $1.64M lifetime joined this Yes push, with 910 resolved bets and activity across 51 events.
  • Three wallets bought the same side for $7.9k, larger than the market’s $4.5k listed liquidity.
  • Their buys hit at 79–88¢ and moved the price sharply, while the current market is much cheaper at about 29¢.

$7,871 on Yes

81% serial macro trader

Serial cross-market trader with an 81% long-run win rate bought No at 75¢ on an Israel ceasefire-extension market.

  • This bettor has won 81% of 1,693 resolved bets across 127 markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $644K flagged across 45 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading approach.
  • They bought No at 75¢ while the market sits near 73%, backing the view that no extension announcement comes by the deadline.

$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfd2b...8e50 Outcome 94403688, $212,581 (56% win rate)
  2. 0xfd66...fb6d Outcome 94403688, $200,000 (20% win rate)
  3. 0x1fa1...1fa9 Outcome 94403688, $100,000 (29% win rate)
  4. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 94403688, $97,126 (80% win rate)
  5. 0xb98e...ecee Outcome 94403688, $70,789 (51% win rate)
  6. 0x72ef...f569 Outcome 94403688, $50,000
  7. 0x0a2d...5349 Outcome 94403688, $41,681
  8. 0x36b4...ac80 Outcome 94403688, $40,109 (25% win rate)
  9. 0xd519...932c Outcome 94403688, $25,556 (18% win rate)
  10. 0x5715...1616 Outcome 94403688, $22,500 (36% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

ResolvedIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?$20,709 tracked5 signalsGeopoliticsLebanonHezbollahIsraelMiddle East

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Price History — “No
88¢
70¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

10d ago

$1,298 on No at 13¢

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

10d ago

$1,581 on Yes at 83¢

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

10d ago

$8,462 on No at 20¢

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

10d ago

$7,871 on Yes at 84¢

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

10d ago

$1,496 on No at 75¢

Related Theses