Part of: Michigan Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. Live odds and smart money activity are tracked on PolySpotter, with the market resolving based on the official election winner.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $136,805.

Categories: Michigan Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, US Election, Politics, Elections, Abdul El-Sayed, mike rogers, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adding Yes

A profitable, highly active trader is adding a substantial Yes position amid a 20x volume spike and rising odds, though their win rate does not clearly exceed their average winning entry price.

  • A trader with 350 resolved bets and $45K in reported profit is adding about $9K to an existing Yes position.
  • Trading activity is 20x the historical average, while Yes odds have risen 12 percentage points over the past week.
  • The trader's 74% win rate alone does not establish an edge at their 89¢ average winning price.

$9,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Proven bettor adding to Michigan YES

A profitable bettor with an 80% record and strong historical odds edge added $10,000 to an existing Michigan Democratic-win position.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved bets and is up $95,355 overall.
  • They added $10,000 to an existing YES position, entering at 79¢.
  • Across 44 events, this serial cross-market trader has maintained an 80% win rate.

$3,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A proven bettor with a 79% win rate and substantial positive returns is adding $8,200 to an existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 78 resolved trades and is up $94,666.
  • They added $8,200 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment in it to over $50,000.
  • The trader has placed bets across 47 events, suggesting a sustained track record beyond this market.

$8,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven bettor adding to Michigan YES

A profitable bettor with an 80% record and strong historical odds edge added $10,000 to an existing Michigan Democratic-win position.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved bets and is up $95,355 overall.
  • They added $10,000 to an existing YES position, entering at 79¢.
  • Across 44 events, this serial cross-market trader has maintained an 80% win rate.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven serial trader adding to Yes

A proven profitable cross-market trader is adding to a substantial Yes position amid a 13.3x market-volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 291 resolved trades and earned about $139,500.
  • They added $1,520 to an existing Yes position already totaling over $22,000.
  • Trading activity was 13.3 times the market’s historical average.

$1,520 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Seven-wallet funded cluster buys Yes

Seven commonly funded wallets are associated with roughly $3.3K of coordinated positioning, while the primary trader has a substantial profitable history and is effectively buying Yes at 75¢.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are tied to about $3,336 of activity on the same side.
  • The trader has won 67% of 344 resolved bets and is up about $281K lifetime.
  • Selling No at 25¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 75¢, near the current 76¢ odds.

$3,336 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

88% winner takes Michigan Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 3,494 resolved positions and an 88% win rate has opened a $1,746 Yes position on the Democratic candidate.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,494 resolved positions and is up $6.46M overall.
  • They placed a fresh $1,746 bet on Yes at 70¢ in a major political market.
  • The wallet has traded across 1,706 events, making this part of a broad, active track record.

$1,439 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

92% winner adding to Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader with 92% wins is adding to an existing Yes position, though the market is liquid and the bet is not unusually large.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 84 resolved trades and is up $66,085 overall.
  • A serial cross-market trader active across 25 events is adding another $5,878 to the same Yes position.
  • The entry is 81¢ in a liquid market, so the track record is the main reason to follow the trade.

$5,878 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced, profitable trader with a strong long-term record bought Yes amid a sharp volume spike and rising odds.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 1,223 resolved bets and is up over $1 million.
  • They put $6,704 on Yes as volume spiked 13.8 times above its historical average.
  • The market has risen 9% over the past week, though the 80¢ entry leaves limited room before the suggested price ceiling.

$6,704 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Proven bettor adding to Michigan YES

A profitable bettor with an 80% record and strong historical odds edge added $10,000 to an existing Michigan Democratic-win position.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved bets and is up $95,355 overall.
  • They added $10,000 to an existing YES position, entering at 79¢.
  • Across 44 events, this serial cross-market trader has maintained an 80% win rate.

$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $684,188
  2. 0x9c99...7250 — Yes, $455,715 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xdc41...dd7e — No, $154,075 (46% win rate)
  4. 0x64c8...73ce — Yes, $106,000 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x22c2...8f8b — Yes, $105,756 (50% win rate)
  6. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $104,421 (40% win rate)
  7. 0x011f...1122 — No, $101,000 (39% win rate)
  8. 0x2c33...0563 — No, $90,704 (56% win rate)
  9. 0xd218...b5c9 — No, $59,789 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x9e72...99c4 — Yes, $47,804 (73% win rate)

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Michigan Senate Election Winner$136,805 tracked18 signalsMichigan MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsUS ElectionPoliticsElectionsAbdul El-Sayedmike rogersGlobal ElectionsUnited StatesKey Senate RacesSenate midterms
Yes
77¢
No
24¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes”
83¢
76¢
68¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 21:31 UTC

$9,071 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 04:34 UTC

$3,200 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 04:28 UTC

$8,200 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 03:49 UTC

$5,000 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 01:28 UTC

$1,520 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→77¢↑1¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 01:24 UTC

$3,336 on Yes at 75¢

75¢→77¢↑2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 18:07 UTC

$1,439 on Yes at 70¢

70¢→77¢↑7¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 07:30 UTC

$5,878 on Yes at 81¢

81¢→77¢↓4¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 07:24 UTC

$6,704 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→77¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 11:44 UTC

$10,000 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 07:12 UTC

$10,000 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-28 18:13 UTC

$1,747 on Yes at 70¢

70¢→77¢↑7¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-04 21:14 UTC

$16,635 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→77¢↑6¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-28 19:52 UTC

$16,330 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→77¢↑6¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-13 22:17 UTC

$6,964 on No at 40¢

40¢→24¢↓16¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-13 22:02 UTC

$12,152 on Yes at 39¢

39¢→77¢↑38¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-08-21 10:15 UTC

$10,956 on Yes at 66¢

66¢→77¢↑11¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2026-08-20 15:48 UTC

$7,674 on Yes at 66¢

66¢→77¢↑11¢

Related Theses