Part of: Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
This Sweden prediction market asks whether the Left Party (V) will win the fourth-most seats in the Riksdag during the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election. The supplied market data does not include a current Yes/No price; the market resolves based on seat totals, or to “Other” if voting has not occurred by December 31, 2026.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,367.
Categories: Sweden, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props, Sweden Parliamentary Elections, Sweden Elections
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A proven bettor with a 78% win rate and 45% edge over implied odds is adding to an existing Yes position at 37 cents.
- This bettor wins 78% of trades across 50 resolved positions and is up $47,040.
- Their results imply a 45% edge over the average odds paid, making this political position notable.
- The $1,040 purchase adds to an existing $2,814 Yes position, signaling sustained conviction as the price rose to 42 cents.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Large bet in a quiet market
A $1.3K No bet is unusually large for this thin Swedish election market, though the serial trader's 56% win rate provides only moderate supporting evidence.
- The $1,328 No bet is nearly 29 times the market's entire 24-hour volume.
- The position represents about 22% of available liquidity, signaling meaningful conviction in a thin political market.
- This serial trader has placed bets across 189 markets, but a 56% win rate is supportive rather than exceptional.
$1,328 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,865
- 0xdd15...4a07 — Yes, $2,835 (78% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $2,148 (55% win rate)
- 0xf0df...69c5 — Yes, $1,804 (45% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $940 (94% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $700 (62% win rate)
- 0xad3a...125c — Yes, $489
- 0x0380...073d — No, $422 (59% win rate)
- 0x1ee9...197f — Yes, $405 (64% win rate)
- 0xb226...4163 — No, $247
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