This bettor has won 82% of 66 resolved bets, giving this trade a stronger signal than the low alert score suggests. They bought No at 88¢ on a wide-spread market, implying confidence Powell stays Fed Chair through the deadline. The position is meaningful for this market at $2.6k, about one-third of the past day’s volume.

Part of: Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,648.

Categories: Politics, Trump, Fed, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, federal reserve, fire, Fed Chair

Notable Trades

82% winner buys No

A proven 82% winner bought No despite only a weak liquidity signal, making the wallet track record the main reason to surface it.

This bettor has won 82% of 66 resolved bets, giving this trade a stronger signal than the low alert score suggests.
They bought No at 88¢ on a wide-spread market, implying confidence Powell stays Fed Chair through the deadline.
The position is meaningful for this market at $2.6k, about one-third of the past day’s volume.

$2,648 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial cross-market bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 95% hit rate put $3,000 into Yes on a thin Powell market, though their lifetime P&L is slightly negative and price has since moved against them.

This bettor has won 95% of resolved trades across 1,191 markets, though mostly at very high prices.
The $3,000 buy was large for this market, equal to about 79% of reported 24h volume at the time.
They bought Yes at 89¢, while the market is now around 81¢, offering a cheaper entry than the original trade.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

0x14dc...3933 — Outcome 47949271, $10,000
0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 47949271, $2,555 (40% win rate)
0x81a6...762e — Outcome 47949271, $2,000
0x8a98...1b92 — Outcome 47949271, $1,995 (54% win rate)
0x9488...d531 — Outcome 47949271, $1,737 (56% win rate)
0xde6b...fae0 — Outcome 47949271, $1,219
0x5fcf...03a0 — Outcome 47949271, $1,188 (50% win rate)
0x0774...da5d — Outcome 47949271, $1,000
0x89de...3620 — Outcome 47949271, $497
0x35e4...5bbc — Outcome 47949271, $439

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Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?

ResolvedJerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?$5,648 tracked2 signalsPoliticsTrumpFedJerome PowellFed Ratesfederal reservefireFed Chair

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.