Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,163.

Categories: Fed, Jerome Powell, Economy, Economic Policy, Fed Rates, Finance

Notable Trades

Repeat new-wallet macro whale

A 12-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets totaling over $20k and just bought $4.2k of No at 41¢, a meaningful size for this market despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 12-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts totaling $20.6k
  • The latest trade bought No at 41¢ with a $4.2k order, bigger than the market's recent activity at the time
  • The market has drifted down over the past week, and this bettor is adding a clear macro view at 41¢

$4,163 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xaf45...ec7d No, $15,458 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xc6d0...4bad No, $11,735
  3. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $10,000 (90% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $7,500 (47% win rate)
  5. 0xae89...90b8 No, $5,531 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xffd2...d7ae Yes, $3,460 (43% win rate)
  7. 0xbe89...b88c Yes, $1,650 (51% win rate)
  8. 0xdef6...f63a Yes, $1,587 (42% win rate)
  9. 0xbcb5...49f6 No, $1,454
  10. 0x5351...c7ed Yes, $1,335

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

49d$4,163 tracked1 signalFedJerome PowellEconomyEconomic PolicyFed RatesFinance
Yes
57¢
No
43¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
68¢
62¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

3h ago

$4,163 on No at 41¢

41¢43¢2¢