Part of: US strike on Colombia by...?
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $499,544.
Categories: Venezuela, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Proven bettor buys quiet No
A proven profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win rate made a large No buy in an otherwise quiet geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $93.7K lifetime.
- Their $3.6K No buy was over 80x the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet book.
- Entry at 82¢ suggests a lower-risk copy of a wallet with a long profitable record.
$3,615 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 4-day-old repeat large bettor is adding a $2.3k No position in a quiet geopolitical market, with the trade worth over 4x the market's 24h volume.
- This 4-day-old wallet has now made $27.3k in flagged large bets across repeat alerts.
- The $2.3k No buy was 4.4x the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet order book.
- The wallet is early but profitable so far, with 1 resolved win and $340 in profit.
$2,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
New whale betting No
A 17-hour-old wallet has now put about $25k into flagged large bets, taking a contrarian No position despite Yes momentum, but has no resolved track record yet.
- This brand-new wallet is already making repeat large bets, with about $25k flagged in under a day.
- They bought No at 80¢ while the market has moved toward Yes over the past day and week.
- The trade is sizable relative to the $9.2k liquidity, suggesting concentrated conviction.
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Repeat new whale on No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making a large $22.4k No bet amid a major volume spike, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet has now been flagged 16 times, with $45k total in notable bets.
- This trade adds $22.4k on No at 80¢, showing meaningful conviction against a US strike.
- Market volume is running 42x above normal, suggesting this theme is drawing unusual attention.
$22,400 on No
New whale backing No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making a large, concentrated No bet amid a major volume spike, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet has now been flagged 16 times and has put $45K into large positions, suggesting repeated high-conviction betting.
- This trade adds about $28K on No around 80¢ while the market is seeing a 31x volume spike.
- The bettor is backing the higher-probability side, implying they see the strike risk as overpriced at roughly 20%.
$28,035 on No
New whale backing NO
A repeat-flagged new wallet put $45k on No during a 24x volume spike in a geopolitical market, suggesting a high-conviction stance despite no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet is making a large repeat bet, putting about $45k on No around 80¢.
- Market volume is running 24x above its usual pace, suggesting this is part of a broader attention spike.
- Entry near 80¢ implies a 25% return if no qualifying US strike occurs by resolution.
$45,045 on No
New whale backing NO
A new wallet is making a concentrated $17k bet on No during a 16x market volume spike, giving this enough conviction and momentum to surface despite no track record.
- A new wallet put $17k into No across six buys at 81¢.
- This wallet has now triggered repeat large-bet alerts 4 times, suggesting deliberate sizing rather than a one-off trade.
- Market activity is running 16.4x above its usual pace, adding momentum behind the move.
$17,010 on No
New whale adding No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making another sizeable $10.7k No bet after previously putting $56.1k into the same side, amid a major volume spike.
- A new wallet has now been flagged 17 times, with $45k+ in notable bets despite no resolved track record yet.
- This looks like continued conviction: the wallet previously put $56.1k into No at the same 81¢ level.
- Market activity is unusually high, with volume running 38x above its historical average.
$10,692 on No
New whale backing NO
A new wallet repeatedly bought No with meaningful size during a 38x volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- A fresh wallet put $17.4k mostly into No at 81¢ across rapid repeat buys.
- The market is seeing a 38x volume spike, suggesting broader attention around this outcome.
- The bet is large relative to the $12.8k visible liquidity, signaling conviction despite no wallet track record yet.
$17,350 on No
Repeat new whale on No
A repeat new wallet has put sizable money into No on a geopolitical strike market, adding $26.7k amid a large volume spike despite no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet is repeatedly betting big, with $45k flagged across 17 alerts and another $26.7k added here.
- This is a geopolitical market where informed positioning is plausible, and today’s volume is 44x above its historical average.
- The bettor is buying No at 81¢, implying confidence the strike scenario is still overpriced.
$26,730 on No
Top Holders
- 0x4cb5...b536 — No, $19,521 (76% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $15,805 (36% win rate)
- 0xc3c3...eec8 — Yes, $9,548 (99% win rate)
- 0x00d1...c8a4 — No, $7,589 (100% win rate)
- 0xf256...9728 — No, $6,572
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $3,609 (70% win rate)
- 0xad52...11ac — Yes, $2,181 (35% win rate)
- 0xf5ee...5d9c — No, $1,725
- 0x2796...b4f0 — No, $1,702
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $1,624 (86% win rate)
