US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $9,202.

Notable Trades

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate put $9.2k into No at 89¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal even without other alerts.

  • This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades across 155 markets and is up about $70.8k
  • They have traded 198 markets across 150 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 89¢ with size ($9.2k), showing conviction that the market should stay a heavy favorite

$9,202 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $111,280 (72% win rate)
  2. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $57,177 (49% win rate)
  3. 0x1521...f23e No, $46,265 (68% win rate)
  4. 0xaf39...3101 No, $44,999 (85% win rate)
  5. 0x80a0...5708 No, $37,589 (39% win rate)
  6. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $37,126 (61% win rate)
  7. 0x3869...0e3c Yes, $17,778 (53% win rate)
  8. 0x5011...220e No, $14,564
  9. 0x1c72...dfb6 No, $14,500 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x3bdf...3a38 Yes, $12,679

Related Theses

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Resolved$9,202 tracked1 signalStrait of HormuzTrumpGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IranIran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

8d ago

$9,202 on No at 89¢

89¢100¢11¢

Related Theses

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | PolySpotter