Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,195.

Categories: Politics, Hungary Election, Global Elections, Hungary, Elections

Notable Trades

New wallet election whale

A 6-day-old wallet has already made nearly $10k in flagged bets and just put on a roughly $5k position in this election market amid a sharp price breakout, suggesting real conviction worth watching.

  • A 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 3 large-bet alerts with nearly $10k flagged in total.
  • This trader effectively added to a bullish position in Yes and helped drive a 51-point move in the market.
  • The bet went through in a market with only about $12k of liquidity, so a roughly $5k swing shows meaningful conviction.

$5,000 on Yes

4-wallet Yes cluster

Four wallets piled into Yes for $13k during a 54x volume spike, including a high-volume cross-market trader and a brand-new wallet, pushing into a relatively thin book before the price moved up to 78¢.

  • Four wallets bought the same side for $13.1k in a short burst, a strong coordinated directional signal.
  • The market saw a 54x volume spike and Yes jumped from entries as low as 55¢-64¢ to 78¢.
  • One wallet has traded 102 related markets across 47 events and is up $731k lifetime, adding some follow-worthy context to the cluster.

$13,079 on Yes

Profitable political macro trader

A highly active and profitable political trader sold Yes at 56¢, which translates to a copyable No buy around 44¢, offering a way to follow a proven cross-market bettor's bearish view.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 762 resolved markets and is up about $864k lifetime
  • The trade leans against a falling market: Yes is down 13 points in 1 day and 22.5 points in 1 week
  • Selling Yes at 56¢ is equivalent to buying No at 44¢, a meaningful bearish position in a liquid election market

$4,195 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable political grinder

A highly active and profitable political trader with 762 resolved bets bought Yes at 72¢ in a moderately thin Hungarian election market, suggesting informed conviction despite only a mid-level composite score.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 762 resolved trades and is up about $864k overall
  • They trade across 57 events and 83 markets, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
  • The $1.9k buy is about 21% of this market's 24h volume, a meaningful size in a market trading around 71-72¢

$1,923 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x94c4...43ca Outcome 10749509, $7,359 (90% win rate)
  2. 0x1063...eb0a Outcome 10749509, $5,341
  3. 0xa583...b44b Outcome 69555862, $3,457
  4. 0x1ee9...f6ea Outcome 10749509, $1,729
  5. 0xa7fe...245e Outcome 69555862, $970
  6. 0xc8c7...3726 Outcome 10749509, $811
  7. 0x3a37...141a Outcome 10749509, $752 (61% win rate)
  8. 0xf1dc...db61 Outcome 69555862, $742
  9. 0x1b82...034d Outcome 69555862, $614
  10. 0x8cb6...dfe8 Outcome 10749509, $608

Related Theses

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Resolved$24,195 tracked4 signalsPoliticsHungary ElectionGlobal ElectionsHungaryElections

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party wins at least one seat in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of the election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Notable Trades

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

7d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 87¢

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

7d ago

$13,079 on Yes at 67¢

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

7d ago

$4,195 on No at 44¢

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

8d ago

$1,923 on Yes at 72¢

Related Theses