Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Renan Santos will receive the third-most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. The market resolves after the October 4, 2026 election based on the official valid vote ranking, with ties broken alphabetically by candidates’ last names. PolySpotter is tracking $2,948 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including recent YES buying from a 97% win-rate bettor.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,948.
Categories: Brazil, World, Politics, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
97% winner buying YES
A proven sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate effectively bought Yes at 45¢ on a Brazil election market, and the price has already moved strongly in that direction.
- This bettor has won 101 of 104 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
- Selling No at 55¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 45¢, well below the current 57–58¢ market.
- The bet was large for this market’s activity, equal to about 69% of the flagged 24h volume.
$2,948 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
97% win-rate bettor
A wallet with an exceptional 97% win rate just supplied nearly all of this market’s 24h volume with a $2,000 bet on No, making it a notable sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with 99 wins in 102 bets
- Their $2,000 order was 99% of this market’s 24-hour volume, showing clear conviction
- They bought No at 71¢, a price that still leaves room if this candidate’s third-place odds keep falling
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Top Holders
- 0x2b9d...adc0 — No, $7,351 (50% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $6,465 (89% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $6,210
- 0xdae1...3835 — Yes, $5,835
- 0x238d...70d8 — No, $3,419
- 0x30fc...510d — Yes, $3,328 (10% win rate)
- 0x5453...65ce — Yes, $2,419 (52% win rate)
- 0xaa6d...60b5 — Yes, $2,121
- 0x9e8e...8db8 — No, $2,034 (57% win rate)
- 0x91e5...0947 — Yes, $1,830 (55% win rate)
