Part of: Will Trump visit China by...?
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $66,071.
Categories: Trump Presidency, Trump, Politics, China, TikTok, World, Trump-Xi, Trade War, Tariffs
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market political trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader $28k thesis across related Trump-visit markets, though this individual buy is small in a liquid market.
- This trader is up about $296k across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
- They have traded 70 markets across 44 events, showing a repeated cross-market political betting style.
- This is part of a broader $28k position across 3 related markets.
$1,662 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,520 | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% win-rate bettor
A high-win-rate wallet with 295 resolved bets is taking a fresh cross-market position, making this modest buy worth tracking despite the otherwise weak single signal.
- This bettor wins 91% of their trades across 295 resolved markets and is up about $44k lifetime.
- They are betting across 2 related Trump visit markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a random one-off trade.
- They bought Yes at 76¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see value even after the market moved higher.
$1,803 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% winner buys No
A small but notable trade from a bettor with a strong early track record, selling overpriced Yes at 86¢ which translates to buying No at 14¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and is up $3.6k on $18.5k invested
- They sold Yes at 86¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 14¢ at a very lopsided market price
- The trade is modest in size, but it comes from a proven wallet rather than routine market flow
$1,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
97% event specialist
A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate is adding another large event-linked position, which is notable even in a liquid market despite the rich 90¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades, with 189 wins and $68k profit across $1.44M invested.
- They have traded 203 related markets across 152 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
- They bought Yes at 90¢ in a market already at 88-89¢, showing conviction even after a 13-point move this week.
$12,724 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
92% win-rate politics bettor
Surface this because a bettor with a strong early track record and large edge bought into a major politics market at 83¢ as the price is already moving higher.
- This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and beat the market by a wide margin so far.
- They bought Yes at 83¢ in a liquid politics market after the price jumped 7.5 points in a day.
- An 83¢ entry means they still see the visit as more likely than the market implies.
$2,752 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
18-wallet funded cluster
A large linked-wallet network with a profitable 70% trader is re-entering this event across multiple related markets, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- 18 wallets funded from the same source have been active together, and this network has shown up repeatedly before.
- This bettor has a 70% win rate across 364 resolved markets and is up about $277k lifetime.
- They are betting this event across 4 related markets, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$3,887 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
12-wallet funded cluster
A 12-wallet linked cluster is active again, and this wallet has a solid 76% win rate while buying into a liquid market that has already been moving higher.
- 12 linked wallets share the same funder, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- This wallet wins 76% of resolved bets across 261 markets, so the flow comes from a proven bettor.
- They bought Yes at 77¢ while the market is up 12 points this week, reinforcing the bullish move.
$2,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
84% win-rate event trader
An 84% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M of cross-market activity is adding a fresh event-level thesis here, making this small buy worth tracking despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 129 markets and has put nearly $2.0M to work
- They have a repeat pattern of betting across related markets in the same event, which suggests a structured thesis rather than a random punt
- Bought Yes at 76¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see value even after the market moved up 10.5 points this week
$1,055 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
87% win-rate contrarian
A highly profitable serial event trader with an 87% win rate bought No at 18¢ in a liquid politics market that has recently moved sharply the other way, making this a notable contrarian bet worth watching.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $420k across 270 resolved markets
- They trade heavily across related events — 96 events and 133 markets — which suggests a repeatable edge in politics-style markets
- They bought No at 18¢ while Yes has surged recently, signaling a low-price contrarian view against current momentum
$1,590 on No | Wallet win rate: 23%
Top Holders
- 0xc336...02ab — Outcome 93039777, $1,400,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xdf35...7b0a — Outcome 93039777, $149,515
- 0xa3d3...d424 — Outcome 93039777, $129,753 (49% win rate)
- 0x3042...130c — Outcome 93039777, $110,380
- 0x0068...382a — Outcome 93039777, $99,010
- 0x2b48...16c5 — Outcome 93039777, $90,406
- 0xf396...ed0d — Outcome 93039777, $82,865 (91% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 93039777, $79,094 (70% win rate)
- 0x5a58...dd44 — Outcome 93039777, $55,190
- 0x9d8d...b8f8 — Outcome 93039777, $53,828
Related Theses
Iran deal in late May
Covers 5 related markets
