Will Trump visit China by...?
17 signals across 2 markets · $98,170 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Donald Trump will physically visit China before specific deadlines, with separate markets for April 30 and May 31. PolySpotter is tracking $98,170 in smart-money activity across 17 signals, including a 3-wallet thesis buy, a 12-wallet funded cluster, and high win-rate event traders taking positions.

Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate is making a large cross-market political bet, buying No at 70¢ as event-wide volume surges.
$32,100Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 13.4 - 3-wallet thesis buy
Three wallets simultaneously bought Yes for over $10.7k into a major volume spike, including one bettor with an 84% win rate and prior cross-market positioning on the same event.
$10,755Score: 10.1 - 97% event specialist
A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate is adding another large event-linked position, which is notable even in a liquid market despite the rich 90¢ entry.
$12,724Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 9.0 - 87% win-rate contrarian
A highly profitable serial event trader with an 87% win rate bought No at 18¢ in a liquid politics market that has recently moved sharply the other way, making this a notable contrarian bet worth watching.
$1,590Wallet win rate: 25%Score: 9.0 - 18-wallet funded cluster
A large linked-wallet network with a profitable 70% trader is re-entering this event across multiple related markets, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
$3,887Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 8.0 - 12-wallet funded cluster
A 12-wallet linked cluster is active again, and this wallet has a solid 76% win rate while buying into a liquid market that has already been moving higher.
$2,046Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 8.0 - 84% win-rate event trader
An 84% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M of cross-market activity is adding a fresh event-level thesis here, making this small buy worth tracking despite the modest size.
$1,055Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 8.0 - Will Trump visit China by May 31?
A serial cross-market wallet with a 99% win rate sold Yes at 84¢ in a market now trading 60¢, suggesting strong event-driven edge despite only a moderate composite score.
$3,075Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 5.9 - Profitable cross-market political trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader $28k thesis across related Trump-visit markets, though this individual buy is small in a liquid market.
$1,662Wallet win rate: 54%Score: 5.0 - Will Trump visit China by May 31?
A serial cross-market bettor with a 99% win rate sold Yes at 85¢ in a liquid politics market that now trades at 60¢, suggesting strong timing and a profitable contrarian edge.
$6,965Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$32,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0xdd0891…5ee9$12,724 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
- 0x33dc4c…bb81$10,610 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xb2a3bf…e321$10,040 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 99% wins
- 0xe853ef…75a8$4,117 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$3,887 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xf92a95…a517$3,323 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0xf7fb42…f6f5$3,192 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xcbab47…9a8a$2,046 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0x68c24b…1711$1,662 · 1 market · 1 alert · 54% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump visits China by April 30 or May 31?
The odds come from Polymarket prices for each child market in this event. The April 30 and May 31 markets can trade differently as new information emerges about Trump-Xi meetings, trade talks, tariffs, or diplomatic travel plans.
What is the smart money doing on this Trump China visit market?
PolySpotter has tracked $98,170 in smart-money activity across 17 signals. Recent alerts include a 3-wallet thesis buy, a 12-wallet funded cluster, a 97% event specialist, and an 84% win-rate event trader, suggesting notable attention from experienced political-market bettors.
What counts as a Trump visit to China for this market?
A qualifying visit means Trump physically enters China’s terrestrial or maritime territory before the market’s deadline. Simply entering Chinese airspace does not count for a positive resolution.
When do these Trump China visit markets resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its stated deadline, such as April 30 or May 31, using the market’s official resolution criteria and primary sources. If Trump has not made a qualifying visit by the relevant deadline, that market resolves to “No.”},{