Will Trump visit China by May 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,966.

Categories: Trump Presidency, Trump, Politics, China, TikTok, World, Trump-Xi, Trade War, Tariffs

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor buying No

A small but notable No buy from a wallet with an 80% win rate and strong edge looks worth surfacing despite only one moderate-strength signal.

  • This bettor wins 80% of their resolved trades and has made about $7.9k on $12.5k invested
  • They bought No at 28¢ while the market prices Yes at 72%, showing a clear contrarian view
  • The market is active and liquid enough that this looks like a deliberate opinion bet, not noise

$1,070 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

A high-win-rate wallet with 101 resolved bets sold Yes at 76¢, which converts to a buyable No position at 24¢ on a liquid geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 83% of their trades across 101 resolved markets and is up nearly $17k
  • They sold Yes at 76¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 24¢ on Trump's China visit
  • The bet size was $10.6k, showing real conviction even in a fairly liquid market

$10,610 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

A high-win-rate political trader is taking the contrarian NO side at 73¢ implied Yes in a major news-driven market, making this worth watching despite the modest composite score.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades with 75 settled positions
  • They sold Yes at 73¢, effectively buying No at 27¢ in a news-driven politics market
  • The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate directional view rather than a random thin-market punt

$3,192 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

A serial cross-market wallet with a 99% win rate sold Yes at 84¢ in a market now trading 60¢, suggesting strong event-driven edge despite only a moderate composite score.

  • This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades with 998 wins across 1,012 markets
  • They sold Yes at 84¢, and the market is now 60¢, showing strong timing on a meaningful $3.1k trade
  • This wallet has traded 313 markets across 249 events, which points to a repeatable event-driven process

$3,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

A serial cross-market bettor with a 99% win rate sold Yes at 85¢ in a liquid politics market that now trades at 60¢, suggesting strong timing and a profitable contrarian edge.

  • This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades across 1,012 bets and has tracked a huge number of related markets
  • They sold Yes at 85¢, and the market is now 60¢, showing strong timing on a major politics market
  • Selling at 85¢ means backing No at a much better price than the market offers now

$6,965 on No | Wallet win rate: 99%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Four wallets piled into Yes for $23k as the market ripped higher, and one of them has an exceptional 98% hit rate with strong realized profits.

  • Four wallets bought Yes at the same time for $23k total, pushing the price up nearly 24 points
  • One of the buyers wins 98% of resolved bets and is up about $111k, which makes this flow worth tracking
  • This was fresh buying, not profit-taking, in a market with decent size and a tight 1¢ spread

$23,054 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xa3d3...d424 No, $59,911
  2. 0xc5b4...61f9 No, $40,734
  3. 0x1260...07ce Yes, $31,283 (43% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $22,670 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x69ef...0424 No, $22,409
  6. 0xe5f0...dc1d No, $21,418 (87% win rate)
  7. 0x51f5...2e8d Yes, $20,516
  8. 0x4dee...8ad7 No, $20,458
  9. 0xdc8d...84bc Yes, $16,472 (84% win rate)
  10. 0x162f...798d Yes, $16,057 (69% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Resolved$47,966 tracked6 signalsTrump PresidencyTrumpPoliticsChinaTikTokWorldTrump-XiTrade WarTariffs
Yes
80¢
No
20¢

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes
82¢
72¢
62¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

1d ago

$1,070 on No at 28¢

28¢20¢8¢

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

6d ago

$10,610 on No at 24¢

24¢20¢4¢

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

11d ago

$3,192 on No at 27¢

27¢20¢7¢

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

12d ago

$3,075 on Yes at 84¢

84¢80¢4¢

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

13d ago

$6,965 on No at 15¢

15¢20¢5¢

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

13d ago

$23,054 on Yes at 74¢

74¢80¢6¢

Related Theses

Will Trump visit China by May 31? | PolySpotter