What does this Bab el-Mandeb prediction market measure?

It measures whether shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to an extremely low level before April 30, 2026. Specifically, the market uses IMF PortWatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls, labeled 'Arrivals of Ships.'

How does the market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average for Bab el-Mandeb transit calls that is less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026.

How does the market resolve to No?

It resolves to No if data is published through the listed resolution date and the 7-day moving average of transit calls never falls to 10 or below during the market window.

Why are traders watching Bab el-Mandeb shipping traffic?

Bab el-Mandeb is a critical chokepoint for global trade, oil flows, and Red Sea shipping routes. Traffic disruption there can reflect escalation involving the Houthis, regional conflict spillover, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and broader geopolitical risk.

What should I watch to follow the odds on this market?

Watch IMF PortWatch traffic data for Bab el-Mandeb, along with news on Red Sea attacks, shipping advisories, insurer warnings, naval activity, and rerouting decisions by major carriers. Those developments are likely to move Polymarket odds as traders reassess the chance of an effective closure.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by April 30, 2026, based on IMF PortWatch data. It resolves to Yes if the 7-day moving average of transit ship arrivals falls to 10 or fewer on any day before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders are using shipping traffic data to price geopolitical disruption risk in the Red Sea.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,573.

Categories: houthi, traffic, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, shipping, Politics, cape of good hope, Regional Spillover, red sea, Houthis

Notable Trades

82% win-rate cross-market bettor

A proven 82% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity is making a fresh bullish Yes bet here by selling No at 79¢, despite only a moderate composite score.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 50 markets and has traded 37 related markets across 30 events.
Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current 22¢ market price.
This looks like a fresh position rather than profit-taking because prior Yes and No positions on this market were already closed.

$1,710 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Proven trader flips to No

A high-volume, profitable cross-market specialist with a 72% win rate is taking a fresh, much larger No position after previously closing a small Yes bet, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.

This bettor has won 72% of 1,115 resolved markets and is up $181k overall.
They just opened a fresh $2.9k No position after previously closing a small Yes bet on this market.
Bought at 75¢ in a liquid market, showing a clear view that closure by April 30 is still unlikely.

$2,888 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

72% winner flips to No

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate opened a fresh No position after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a deliberate directional flip worth watching.

This bettor has won 798 of 1,114 resolved trades and is up about $181k overall.
They closed an earlier Yes position, then opened a fresh $1,975 No bet at 79¢, showing a clear change in view.
This wallet has traded 289 markets across 119 events, so this looks like a seasoned event trader rather than a one-off punt.

$1,975 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%