Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
11 signals across 5 markets · $34,159 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed by late April or May, based on IMF PortWatch ship-arrival data. Traders are betting on whether Red Sea shipping traffic drops to the market’s threshold, with recent smart-money alerts leaning toward “No” after several proven bettors flipped or stayed bearish on closure.
Markets (5)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?5 signals · $9,033 tracked
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?1 signal · $9,024 tracked
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?1 signal · $8,480 tracked
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?3 signals · $6,573 tracked
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?1 signal · $1,048 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$1,854Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 8.0 - 93% winner trimming Yes
A highly successful serial trader is exiting a large Yes position, creating a potentially meaningful bearish signal despite the trade likely being partial position management.
$1,048Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 7.8 - Three-wallet No conviction cluster
Three wallets, including a highly profitable 90% winner, are adding roughly $8,500 to No across a cross-market thesis.
$8,480Score: 6.4 - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,092Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 6.0 - 96% winner scaling into No
A highly accurate bettor with a 96% win rate is adding another $9,024 to an existing No position at 90¢, supported by correlated event positioning.
$9,024Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 5.3 - Proven trader flips to No
A high-volume, profitable cross-market specialist with a 72% win rate is taking a fresh, much larger No position after previously closing a small Yes bet, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.
$2,888Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 4.0 - 72% winner flips to No
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate opened a fresh No position after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a deliberate directional flip worth watching.
$1,975Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 4.0 - 82% win-rate cross-market bettor
A proven 82% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity is making a fresh bullish Yes bet here by selling No at 79¢, despite only a moderate composite score.
$1,710Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$1,200Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 3.0 - Profitable contrarian on NO
A profitable wallet with a 73% win rate is making a fresh cross-market bet on No at 71¢ in a geopolitics market that has been drifting toward Yes, making this a modest but followable contrarian signal.
$1,078Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe172d9…e8e0$9,024 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$6,954 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$2,810 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x9baebe…5d34$1,854 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$1,710 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xa2f746…4899$1,200 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$1,078 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$1,048 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
FAQs
What are the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure odds on Polymarket?
The event aggregates markets for whether Bab el-Mandeb transit falls to an effective-closure threshold by April 30 or May 31. The live odds reflect how traders price the chance that IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals.
What does “effectively closed” mean for this market?
For these markets, “effectively closed” means IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at or below 10 during the relevant window.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter is tracking about $15.6K in smart-money activity across 8 signals. Recent alerts include a proven trader flipping to “No,” a 72% winner flipping to “No,” and a profitable contrarian taking the “No” side.
When do the Bab el-Mandeb closure markets resolve?
The event includes markets resolving around April 30 and May 31, 2026. Each market can resolve earlier if IMF PortWatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or below 10.
Why are traders watching the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a key Red Sea shipping route, so disruptions tied to regional conflict, Houthi attacks, or rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope can affect global trade and oil-market expectations.