Part of: Texas Governor Election Winner
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether the Republican nominee will win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election and resolves according to the election winner. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; PolySpotter tracks $6,735 in smart-money activity and one recent signal showing a wallet increasing its Yes position.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $192,449.
Categories: Texas Midterm, Governor Elections, Midterms, Elections, Politics, US Election, Key Governor Races
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable trader with a 75% record across 55 resolved bets is adding to a substantial No position and has a long-running cross-market pattern.
- This bettor has won 75% of 55 resolved bets and is up about $1.06 million.
- They are adding to an existing $139,000 No position at 35¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events, with a 75% win rate reported on its cross-market activity.
$4,723 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A highly profitable bettor with a strong 55-bet record is adding to a substantial existing No position and has a history of cross-market activity.
- This bettor has won 75% of 55 resolved bets and is up over $1 million.
- They are adding to a $131,508 No position, with this trade entered at 35¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events and 38 markets, with a 75% win rate.
$2,745 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable trader with a 75% record across 55 resolved bets is adding to a substantial No position and has a long-running cross-market pattern.
- This bettor has won 75% of 55 resolved bets and is up about $1.06 million.
- They are adding to an existing $139,000 No position at 35¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events, with a 75% win rate reported on its cross-market activity.
$5,240 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A highly profitable bettor with a strong 55-bet record is adding to a substantial existing No position and has a history of cross-market activity.
- This bettor has won 75% of 55 resolved bets and is up over $1 million.
- They are adding to a $131,508 No position, with this trade entered at 35¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events and 38 markets, with a 75% win rate.
$2,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Three-wallet No cluster with proven whale
Three wallets placed $44.5K on No, including a profitable bettor with a strong record who is adding to a substantial existing No position.
- Three wallets bought No for a combined $44,519, with one adding to an existing $124K position.
- The largest bettor is up over $1M and has won 75% of 55 resolved bets.
- The No shares were bought around 33–34¢, while the market currently prices No at 34¢.
$44,519 on No
Profitable serial trader adding to NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position at 33¢ despite Republicans being favored.
- This bettor has won 75% of 55 resolved bets and is up over $1 million.
- They added $33,631 to an existing $124,378 No position at 33¢.
- The trader has positioned across 25 events, with a 75% win rate.
$33,631 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable bettor with 365 resolved positions is buying No at 32¢, making this a notable contrarian position despite limited market-specific corroboration.
- This bettor has won 81% of 365 resolved trades and is up about $2.43 million.
- They are buying No at 32¢ while the market gives Republicans a 68% chance.
- The wallet has traded across 106 events, though the alert does not show its related positions.
$2,212 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven bettor adding to Yes
A highly experienced bettor with a 77% win rate across 2,377 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position at 66¢.
- This bettor has won 77% of 2,377 resolved bets and is up $286,130.
- They added another $1,786 to an existing Yes position at 66¢.
$2,341 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven bettor adding to Yes
A highly experienced bettor with a 77% win rate across 2,377 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position at 66¢.
- This bettor has won 77% of 2,377 resolved bets and is up $286,130.
- They added another $1,786 to an existing Yes position at 66¢.
$1,786 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven 79% serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 79% record is buying No at 34¢ in a liquid Texas governor market.
- This bettor has won 79% of 273 resolved trades and is up over $5 million.
- A serial cross-market trader active across 229 events is buying No at 34¢.
- The market is liquid, and the trade is a fresh $3,424 position.
$3,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $280,317
- 0x6575...b198 — No, $146,057 (75% win rate)
- 0x8aa7...0d94 — Yes, $98,013 (17% win rate)
- 0xee17...6ea1 — Yes, $73,000 (28% win rate)
- 0xd3a6...fd55 — No, $66,672 (41% win rate)
- 0xd1e6...0331 — Yes, $61,723
- 0x9703...69c2 — Yes, $45,874 (76% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $45,311 (79% win rate)
- 0x0fe0...5700 — Yes, $42,718
- 0xebbd...ab49 — Yes, $41,477 (85% win rate)
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