Part of: Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,079.

Categories: Politics, election, US Election, Iowa Midterm, Ohio Midterm, Maine Midterm, Texas Midterm, Alaska Midterm, Kansas Midterm, Michigan Midterm, Senate

Notable Trades

Profitable sharp adding to No

A proven bettor with a 90% record and substantial positive returns added to an existing No position, making this a credible copy signal despite the price tracking current odds.

  • This bettor has won 54 of 60 resolved positions and is up $32,935.
  • They added $1,079 to an existing No position at 87¢, with No currently priced near 86¢.

$1,079 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,648,511
  2. 0xf031...c80c — Yes, $779,909 (89% win rate)
  3. 0x2342...dd81 — Yes, $550,939
  4. 0x498d...ddd4 — Yes, $100,000 (63% win rate)
  5. 0x712f...9fe6 — Yes, $54,053 (56% win rate)
  6. 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $49,715 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x05f6...25a1 — No, $32,128 (67% win rate)
  8. 0xf1f9...1245 — Yes, $20,000 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x40cf...d21d — Yes, $15,000 (48% win rate)
  10. 0xe234...304a — Yes, $14,679 (66% win rate)

Related Theses

Republicans will win the House

Covers 2 related markets

GOP state-loss scenario won’t happen

Covers 2 related markets

Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?$1,079 tracked1 signalPoliticselectionUS ElectionIowa MidtermOhio MidtermMaine MidtermTexas MidtermAlaska MidtermKansas MidtermMichigan MidtermSenate
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
100¢
91¢
82¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

2026-10-30 22:58 UTC

$1,079 on No at 87¢

87¢→90¢↑3¢

Related Theses