Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
10 signals across 3 markets · $43,129 tracked · resolves Nov 3, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks combinations of Republican wins in the 2026 Senate elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. The listed market asks whether Republicans win Iowa while losing the other six states; a tracked alert reports a profitable sharp adding to No.
Markets (3)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?5 signals · $31,162 tracked
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?4 signals · $10,889 tracked
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?1 signal · $1,079 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Seven wallets sharing a funder are linked to this market, and the trader is adding to an existing $200,517 Yes position despite an otherwise unremarkable record relative to typical winning entry prices.
$3,500Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.2 - Seven-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Seven wallets sharing a funder are linked to this market, and the trader is adding to an existing $200,517 Yes position despite an otherwise unremarkable record relative to typical winning entry prices.
$3,100Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.2 - Seven-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes, while the lead bettor adds to a large existing position in a major 2026 Senate-election market.
$5,540Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.2 - 7-wallet funded cluster
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is buying Yes, and this profitable trader is adding to a substantial existing position, though the new trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
$2,040Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet cluster betting No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and a highly active, profitable trader are aligned on No, though the trader's win rate does not clearly beat their average entry odds.
$3,314Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet shared-funder cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with roughly $4,034 of positioning, making the coordinated cluster notable despite the trader's win rate not clearly exceeding their average winning odds.
$4,034Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Eight-wallet funded cluster adds to No
Eight wallets sharing a funder have accumulated $1,740 on No, with the alerted trader adding to an existing position in a highly liquid market.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 8.2 - Eight-wallet funded cluster adds to No
Eight wallets sharing a funder have accumulated $1,740 on No, with the alerted trader adding to an existing position in a highly liquid market.
$1,740Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 8.2 - Four-wallet Yes position buildup
Four wallets added $66,170 to Yes at 32¢, building on existing positions as the market rose 7% over the past day.
$16,982Score: 6.5 - Profitable sharp adding to No
A proven bettor with a 90% record and substantial positive returns added to an existing No position, making this a credible copy signal despite the price tracking current odds.
$1,079Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe23495…304a$21,529 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xa8b7f8…ee3c$3,540 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 55% wins
- 0xc16e14…8f62$1,079 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Republicans winning these Senate swing states?
The event covers combinations of Republican wins across seven states. Check the live market prices on this page for current odds; the available event data here does not include a specific price.
What outcome does the listed market cover?
It asks whether Republicans win Iowa and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.
What is smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has tracked one smart-money signal totaling $1,079 across the event. Its alert headline says a profitable sharp is adding to No.
When does this Senate election market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by November 3, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. The listed elections include potential runoffs.