Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 15 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension covering all Israeli civilian airspace or a majority-region equivalent; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $3,000 in smart money activity, with recent signals including sharp wallets and clustered buying around the No side, alongside some coordinated geopolitical Yes flow.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
37 smart money signals detected, totaling $93,029.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
94% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win record bought Yes at 53¢ during a rapid upward move in a high-volume geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 33 of 35 resolved trades and is up $89k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 53¢ as the market jumped 28 points in under 2 minutes.
- The market has heavy momentum, with Yes up about 49 points over the past day.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Cross-market momentum buyer
Surface as a news-sensitive momentum trade: a profitable wallet bought Yes during a rapid 28-point move and has related positioning across the same event.
- Yes jumped 28 percentage points in under 2 minutes, matching a huge 49-point move over the last day.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $3,750 on $13,284 invested, and has $8,200 positioned across related markets.
- This is a near-term geopolitical market with heavy 24h volume, so fast one-sided movement may reflect fresh information.
$4,444 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 43%
92% winner fading spike
A highly proven 92% win-rate wallet is selling Yes after a sharp airspace-closure price spike, making the equivalent copy trade a Buy on No at 44¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They are fading a 28-point Yes price surge by selling Yes at 56¢.
- The equivalent copy is buying No at 44¢, implying they think the spike overstates closure risk.
$2,670 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable wallet flips to YES
A profitable high-volume wallet flipped from a prior No position into Yes during a sharp 28-point airspace-market move, suggesting momentum around plausible breaking-news risk.
- This bettor is up $140k lifetime and just switched from a prior No position into Yes.
- The market moved 28 percentage points upward in under 2 minutes, with Yes now near even odds.
- They have also traded 3 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%
92% winner fading spike
A highly profitable 92% lifetime winner is fading a sharp Yes spike by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 50¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $48.5k lifetime.
- They are fading a fast 28-point Yes rally, effectively backing No at 50¢.
- The same wallet has been active across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis.
$1,526 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Serial cross-market bettor
Experienced cross-market bettor with a long positive track record is taking a contrarian No position after a major Yes-side price spike.
- This wallet has traded 588 markets across 440 events and is up $45.6K lifetime.
- They win 68% of resolved bets over 627 results, with more than $1.2M deployed.
- They bought No at 45¢ after Yes surged about 50 points, taking a contrarian stance into heavy volume.
$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes amid a sharp airspace-market repricing, though the position is modest and currently below their entry.
- This bettor is up $245K lifetime across more than 1,500 resolved trades.
- They have traded 166 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Yes jumped rapidly around the trade and is up about 50 points in the past day.
$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Coordinated No fade
Three wallets are buying No against a huge Yes rally in a news-sensitive market, with a serial cross-market trader flipping after previously holding Yes.
- Three wallets bought the same No side, totaling about $4.8k against a sharp Yes rally.
- The lead wallet is an active cross-market trader with 482 resolved bets across 28 events.
- This is a contrarian entry at 40¢ after Yes moved up more than 50 points in a day.
$1,920 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial trader buys NO
A profitable high-volume serial trader joined a 3-wallet No cluster after a sharp price move in a highly active geopolitical market.
- This bettor has traded 1,228 resolved markets and is up $85K lifetime.
- Three wallets bought the same No side for $4.2K in the scan window.
- Entry at 39¢ is a contrarian bet after a sharp one-day Yes surge.
$1,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Profitable whale fading panic
Profitable high-volume wallet is buying No as part of a $29.6k cross-market thesis despite a sharp recent move toward Yes.
- This wallet is up $1.2M lifetime across more than $82M traded.
- The bettor has put $29.6k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader No-side thesis.
- They are buying No at 81¢ after Yes jumped 13 points in a day.
$2,565 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%
Top Holders
- 0xe36f...cd91 — No, $70,000 (92% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $62,973 (77% win rate)
- 0xf7cf...0ceb — No, $36,228 (67% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Yes, $32,224 (4% win rate)
- 0xc1db...838d — Yes, $32,011 (35% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Yes, $29,578 (97% win rate)
- 0x8f42...b88f — Yes, $20,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $19,001 (88% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $18,673 (48% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $18,402 (64% win rate)
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