Israel Airspace Closure Odds | Polymarket

Markets (10)

Top trades across all markets

Sharp 9-wallet Yes cluster
High-conviction one-sided Yes cluster with 9 wallets, a 29.5x volume spike, and participation from a highly profitable bettor with an 82% record.
$19,169Score: 29.7
Sharp cross-market NO cluster
Three profitable cross-market bettors are aligned on buying No, including an 87% winner up $692k lifetime and a serial trader with strong event-level history.
$5,795Score: 21.1
82% winner joins No cluster
A proven 82% winner with $565k lifetime profit flipped from an earlier Yes position into No, alongside 12-wallet one-sided No flow and a major volume spike.
$3,840Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 20.3
Sharp serial bettor on No
A proven serial cross-market bettor with 73% wins and +$249k lifetime P&L put $24.2k on No, alongside major volume spikes and a fast price move toward No.
$24,220Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 18.5
Profitable serial event trader
Strong profitable serial cross-market trader is putting $27.7K on No amid a major volume spike and event-wide positioning.
$27,684Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 18.4
Serial trader leads Yes surge
High-scoring coordinated Yes flow with a 78x volume spike, major price breakout, and a profitable serial cross-market trader makes this worth surfacing.
$16,332Score: 17.0
Six-wallet NO wave
Six wallets pushed the same No position during a large volume spike, with several experienced profitable traders contributing despite no standout sharp-wallet win-rate signal.
$9,466Score: 16.5
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets are buying Yes, including two profitable high-win-rate bettors and a serial cross-market trader, amid a sharp 1-day price surge.
$9,657Score: 15.5
Profitable wallets fading spike
Coordinated No flow from three profitable, high-volume wallets is fading a sharp Yes rally in a geopolitics market with visible price impact.
$6,027Score: 15.2
12-wallet NO cluster
Strong coordinated No flow on a news-sensitive geopolitics market, with 12 wallets buying the same side amid a 68x volume spike and a repeat new wallet adding size.
$3,100Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 14.8

Top wallets in this event

0xc96e52…f1f9$56,388 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 79% wins
0x7f9e2d…3a0e$55,417 · 4 markets · 29 alerts · 87% wins
0x88c491…129a$51,570 · 5 markets · 25 alerts · 88% wins
0xeb490d…693e$49,414 · 2 markets · 11 alerts · 81% wins
0x35bbba…009b$33,991 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 72% wins
0xb8d2bf…c66b$31,583 · 4 markets · 11 alerts · 75% wins
0x83d6df…984c$23,012 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 79% wins
0x6d9fc3…9790$19,138 · 4 markets · 7 alerts · 61% wins
0x9592ad…a7b8$17,082 · 4 markets · 9 alerts · 93% wins
0xe36f57…cd91$13,913 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 84% wins

More on this event

Cross-market thesis

Israel keeps airspace open

FAQs

What are the odds Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance of a major Israeli civilian airspace closure by the deadline. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money alerts so you can see whether informed wallets are leaning Yes or No.

What does this Israel airspace closure market resolve on?

The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates a major closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across all or most Israeli civilian airspace by the specified deadline. Otherwise, it resolves No.

What is the smart money doing on this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,388 in smart money activity across this event, with one recent signal showing a 91% winner buying No. That suggests at least one historically successful trader is positioning against a qualifying closure occurring by May 31.

When does the Israel airspace closure market resolve?

This event is scheduled around the May 31 deadline. The market resolves based on whether a qualifying major airspace closure occurs by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.