Part of: Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,509.
Categories: Fidesz, Magyar, Global Elections, Tisza, Politics, Elections, Orban, Hungary Election, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Hungary
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet buyer
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed size into Polymarket and just bought this fast-rising Hungary election market below current price, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already been flagged 8 times for large bets totaling $24.7k
- Bought Yes at 66¢ and the market is now 70¢, showing immediate follow-through
- The market is active and moving fast, up 23 points in a day and 31.5 points in a week
$1,012 on Yes
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just bought nearly $2.9k of Yes before a sharp move higher in a liquid politics market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
- A 4-day-old wallet has already been flagged 8 times and has put $24.7k into recent bets.
- This trader bought Yes at 62-66¢, and the market has already moved up to 74¢.
- The bet is in a major politics market with strong momentum, up 27 points in a day.
$2,880 on Yes
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across the platform and just added another sizable Yes position into a fast-rising Hungary election market, suggesting real conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts totaling about $23.7k
- They bought Yes at 62¢ while this market is already up 18 points in a day and 27 points in a week
- The bet is meaningful but not market-moving in a liquid election market, so the main signal is repeated conviction from a fresh wallet
$1,868 on Yes
87% win-rate cross-market bettor
A high-performing serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate is taking the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $242k across 187 bets
- They trade across many related markets — 67 markets in 31 events — which suggests a repeatable edge, not a one-off punt
- They effectively bought Yes at 47¢ by selling No at 53¢, close to the current market price
$1,590 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable new wallet adds size
A 9-day-old wallet with repeated large bets, early profits, and a perfect small sample record just added fresh size on a major political market.
- This 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 8 large-bet alerts, with $39k flagged and $1.5k profit so far
- It has won 3 of 3 resolved markets and just bought No at 54¢ in a major Hungary election market
- This looks like fresh conviction rather than routine whale flow, even though the single bet is modest
$1,359 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
New wallet repeat whale
A brand-new wallet has already put over $13k into repeated bets and just bought Yes at 48¢ in an active 2026 Hungary election market, which is notable early conviction despite no track record yet.
- This wallet is less than a day old and has already triggered repeated large-bet alerts totaling about $13k
- They bought Yes at 48¢ in a major political market, implying they think Tisza wins by 9%+ more often than the market does
- The market is active but not ultra-deep, so a fresh wallet sizing in this quickly stands out as real conviction
$2,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Profitable new wallet repeats
A 7-day-old wallet with repeat large bets, early profits, and five prior flags just bought No with meaningful size into an active politics market.
- This 7-day-old wallet has already been flagged 5 times and is up $1.5k on just $4.1k invested.
- They bought No with $3.1k at 53¢ in a politics market, showing fresh conviction rather than small test sizing.
- The market has active volume and an 8-point 1-day move, so this looks like a bettor pressing a live election view.
$3,141 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
New wallet election whale
A brand-new wallet deployed $15.6k into a Hungarian election market and helped drive a sharp 20-point move, which is notable despite having no track record yet.
- A wallet just 9 hours old put $15.6k into Yes in a single burst
- These buys were tied to a 20-point jump in the Yes price, showing real conviction
- The trade hit a political market with $88k 24h volume, so this was meaningful but not routine noise
$15,623 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
New whale repeating buys
A brand-new wallet has already made repeated four-figure bets totaling over $10k on this election market and is buying into rising momentum at 47¢.
- This wallet is less than 10 hours old and has already triggered 3 large-bet alerts totaling about $10.4k
- They bought Yes at 47¢ while the market has climbed 9 points in a day, showing fresh conviction behind the move
- The market is liquid enough to matter but this is still a sizable election bet worth tracking
$2,807 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 24357659, $128,879
- 0x7664...2e50 — Outcome 24357659, $36,258 (73% win rate)
- 0xc4fd...fe19 — Outcome 24357659, $27,767 (93% win rate)
- 0x4be5...c1b3 — Outcome 24357659, $14,564 (82% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Outcome 24357659, $13,261 (75% win rate)
- 0x34a1...bf30 — Outcome 24357659, $7,657
- 0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 24357659, $6,553 (61% win rate)
- 0x01da...ea89 — Outcome 24357659, $6,000
- 0xd3a6...fd55 — Outcome 24357659, $5,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x414b...0d3f — Outcome 24357659, $5,000
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