Part of: Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,440.
Categories: Iran, qatar, Geopolitics, saudi arabia, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
91% bettor adds to Yes
A proven 91% bettor added $2,100 to Yes at 77¢ before the market rose to 92%, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite the existing position.
- This bettor has won 91% of 67 resolved trades and is up $14,555.
- They bought $2,100 of Yes at 77¢, while the market has since risen to 92%.
- The trade adds to an existing Yes position and aligns with positioning in another market from the same event.
$2,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Serial event trader adding to Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position across four related markets, though the 70% win rate does not indicate a strong standalone edge at this price.
- This trader has resolved positions across 55 events and 76 markets, with $64,784 in lifetime profit.
- They are adding $1,264 to an existing Yes position while taking the same direction across four markets in the event.
- The market has surged 70.5% over the past week, supporting the trader’s directional thesis, though Yes is already priced at 88¢.
$2,076 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Serial event trader adding to Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position across four related markets, though the 70% win rate does not indicate a strong standalone edge at this price.
- This trader has resolved positions across 55 events and 76 markets, with $64,784 in lifetime profit.
- They are adding $1,264 to an existing Yes position while taking the same direction across four markets in the event.
- The market has surged 70.5% over the past week, supporting the trader’s directional thesis, though Yes is already priced at 88¢.
$1,264 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
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