US forces enter Iran by December 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $297,884.
Notable Trades
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate and nearly $1.0M in profit sold Yes at 74¢, which translates to buying No at 26¢ in this Iran market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $999k lifetime
- They have traded 292 markets across 239 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 74¢ is equivalent to buying No at 26¢, a cheap entry if they think invasion odds are overstated
$23,891 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate and nearly $1.0M in profits just made a sizable $16.7k buy on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $999k overall
- They have traded 292 markets across 239 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They just bought $16.7k of Yes at 77¢ in a liquid geopolitics market even after a 13.5-point weekly pullback
$16,703 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate bought Yes at 75¢ on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth tracking despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 85% of 769 resolved trades and is up about $999k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets, with $5.7M deployed over 238 events, which suggests a repeatable macro-news edge
- They bought Yes at 75¢ after this market fell 13.5 points in a week, signaling conviction into recent weakness
$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A profitable wallet with a solid 75% hit rate and $2.1M P&L is making a fresh $25.8k directional bet across related Iran event markets, which is notable despite the market’s deep liquidity.
- This bettor wins 75% of their resolved trades and is up $2.1M lifetime
- They put $25.8k on Yes and have also bet over $203k across related Iran event markets
- Bought at 73¢ even as this market slid 13.5 points over the past week, showing conviction against recent momentum
$25,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A proven 75% win-rate trader with activity across 46 related events opened a fresh $9.1k Yes position in a major geopolitics market, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than random flow.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 246 markets and is up $134.7k lifetime.
- They have traded 64 markets across 46 related events, which points to a repeatable event-driven strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- The wallet just opened a fresh $9.1k Yes position at 73¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, implying they still see value even after this contract moved higher.
$9,130 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Profitable wallet with a strong resolved track record made a $55k directional bet and has put $182k across related Iran markets, signaling a deliberate event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $2.1M lifetime
- They put $182k across 2 related Iran markets, showing a clear event-driven view
- They bought Yes at 73¢ with a $55k order, even as the market pulled back over the past week
$54,972 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A profitable wallet with a 75% win rate and $2.07M realized profit made a fresh $18.5k Yes buy in a major geopolitics market after a sharp weekly pullback, making this a reasonable sharp-bettor signal despite limited signal diversity.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $2.1M lifetime
- They just bought $18.5k of Yes at 71¢ after this market fell 13.5% over the past week
- Their entry suggests they still see US entry into Iran as more likely than the current market implies
$18,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A proven 79% win-rate trader with activity across 97 events is building a multi-market thesis on a major geopolitics market by buying Yes at 70¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades across 136 bets and has traded $1.64M across 97 events.
- They have taken 5 positions in this same event for $32.7k total, which points to a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 70¢ in a deep, active market, suggesting they still see value even after the contract is already heavily favored.
$6,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Surface this because a profitable wallet with a strong 75% hit rate and $2.07M P&L made a sizable $16.3k Yes buy while building a broader thesis across related Iran markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $2.07M lifetime
- They bought $16.3k of Yes at 69¢ while also betting across related Iran markets
- Entry at 69¢ suggests they still see value even after this market traded down 13.5% over the past week
$16,319 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A high-volume wallet with an 82% win rate across 784 resolved bets is taking the contrarian No side at 29¢ in a major geopolitics market after a sharp weekly move.
- This bettor wins 82% of their trades and is up $436k across 784 resolved bets
- They bought No at 29¢ while the market still prices Yes at 70%, a clear contrarian stance
- The market is large and active, so this looks more like a sharp opinion than a random thin-market punt
$5,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $478,058 (72% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $297,993 (75% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — No, $121,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x5188...c804 — No, $107,260 (82% win rate)
- 0xd7f8...89e4 — No, $100,000
- 0xc851...cd2a — No, $99,981
- 0x436f...2c7f — Yes, $75,393
- 0xbacd...ab35 — No, $71,315 (49% win rate)
- 0xc021...1fa8 — No, $68,131 (51% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $61,370
