Do uninhabited islands count for this market?

No. Territory administered by the Republic of China, including inhabited islands, qualifies, but uninhabited islands do not qualify under the market rules.

When will the China Taiwan prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2027, based on the stated resolution criteria and official confirmation from the designated sources.

What are the current odds for a China invasion of Taiwan?

The provided page metadata does not include a live Yes or No price. Check the market page for the latest prediction market odds.

How much smart money is tracked in this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $17,101 in smart money activity and one smart money signal for this market.

Part of: Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Q: What does the China-Taiwan invasion prediction market cover?

The market resolves Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves No.

This prediction market asks whether China will begin a military offensive intended to control any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan by December 31, 2027. The supplied metadata does not include current Yes/No odds; PolySpotter tracks $17,101 in smart money activity across one signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

36 smart money signals detected, totaling $797,306.

Categories: China, Politics, World, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader added $2,022 to an existing No position amid a 171x volume spike and a sharp No price rise, creating a notable though not elite conviction signal.

The market saw a 171x spike versus its historical trading volume, while No rose 27% as money entered.
This trader added $2,022 to an existing No position worth $5,397, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
The wallet has resolved 390 trades with a 66% win rate and has traded across 69 markets.

$17,101 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Proven 80% winner

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a major geopolitical market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $2.2k lifetime.
Their past wins came at average 57¢ odds, suggesting they have beaten market expectations.
They bought No at 85¢, backing the view that China does not invade Taiwan by end-2027.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader added $2,022 to an existing No position amid a 171x volume spike and a sharp No price rise, creating a notable though not elite conviction signal.

The market saw a 171x spike versus its historical trading volume, while No rose 27% as money entered.
This trader added $2,022 to an existing No position worth $5,397, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
The wallet has resolved 390 trades with a 66% win rate and has traded across 69 markets.

$2,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial trader scaling into No

A serial cross-market trader added $2,022 to an existing No position amid a 171x volume spike and a sharp No price rise, creating a notable though not elite conviction signal.

The market saw a 171x spike versus its historical trading volume, while No rose 27% as money entered.
This trader added $2,022 to an existing No position worth $5,397, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
The wallet has resolved 390 trades with a 66% win rate and has traded across 69 markets.

$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Whale buying Yes quietly

A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.

A single wallet put $69k toward Yes, more than 16x the market’s recent 24h volume.
The trade is effectively buying Yes around 16¢, a low-probability entry with large upside if risk rises.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, but its resolved record is limited at 4 wins and 6 losses.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%