Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
26 signals across 1 market · $757,837 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2027
This Polymarket event tracks whether China will launch a military offensive intended to control any inhabited Taiwan-administered territory by December 31, 2027. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,100 in smart money activity, with a recent signal showing a 92% winner buying NO.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Whale buying Yes quietly
A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.
$46,881Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 5.3 - Whale buying Yes quietly
A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.
$69,236Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 4.0 - Whale buying Yes quietly
A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.
$55,000Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 3.7 - Whale buying Yes quietly
A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.
$45,593Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 3.6 - Whale buying Yes quietly
A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.
$44,209Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 3.4 - Whale buying Yes quietly
A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.
$49,052Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 2.1 - Proven 80% winner
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a major geopolitical market.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 2.0 - Proven 80% winner
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a major geopolitical market.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 2.0 - 92% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has won 11 of 12 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is buying No on a liquid long-term geopolitical market.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 2.0 - Repeat whale buying NO
A repeat large bettor is putting $70k back into the No side on a geopolitical market, a meaningful size relative to recent activity despite an unproven track record.
$70,000Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 1.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe8d6ab…d5db$751,637 · 1 market · 23 alerts · 40% wins
- 0x6d8cf0…99f6$5,100 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x4cbe53…100a$1,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for China invading Taiwan by 2027?
This event follows the live Polymarket price for whether China invades Taiwan by December 31, 2027. The market price reflects traders' implied probability for YES versus NO and can move as geopolitical news, military activity, and official statements change expectations.
What is the smart money doing on this China-Taiwan market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,100 in smart money activity on this event. The latest highlighted signal shows a 92% winner buying NO, suggesting that trader is positioning against the invasion-by-2027 outcome.
What counts as an invasion for this market?
The market resolves YES if China begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by the Republic of China, including inhabited islands. Uninhabited islands do not qualify under the market rules.
When does the China invade Taiwan by 2027 market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying invasion occurs by December 31, 2027. If no qualifying military offensive has occurred by the deadline, the market resolves NO.
Where does the resolution information come from?
Resolution is based on official confirmation from sources such as China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or other credible reporting specified by the market rules.