Part of: Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,100 in smart money activity, with a recent signal showing 92% winner buying NO. The market resolves based on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or other specified resolution sources.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,100.

Categories: China, Politics, World, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

92% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has won 11 of 12 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is buying No on a liquid long-term geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades, going 11-for-12 with positive lifetime profit.
  • They are backing No with $1.1K at 86¢, implying confidence that invasion risk is overpriced.
  • The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the bettor’s track record rather than order-book pressure.

$1,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe8d6...d5db — No, $81,952 (44% win rate)
  2. 0xdd1d...bbf0 — No, $65,432 (81% win rate)
  3. 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $51,262 (54% win rate)
  4. 0xa4c3...bbb2 — No, $36,911
  5. 0x5036...3aad — Yes, $36,223
  6. 0xaef2...df3d — No, $31,087
  7. 0x1e77...c65f — Yes, $30,877
  8. 0x4004...c40b — No, $29,499 (86% win rate)
  9. 0x960b...4a03 — Yes, $26,787
  10. 0x6794...ec48 — No, $24,752 (75% win rate)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

575dWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1,100 tracked1 signalChinaPoliticsWorldGeopolitics
Yes
15¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
87¢
85¢
82¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

3h ago

$1,100 on No at 86¢

86¢→85¢↓1¢