What does the China-Taiwan invasion prediction market cover?

It covers whether China begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of territory administered by the Republic of China, including inhabited islands, by December 31, 2027.

When does the China invasion of Taiwan market resolve?

The market resolves by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, based on the market’s stated resolution criteria and official confirmation sources.

What would make this market resolve to No?

It resolves to “No” if no qualifying offensive occurs by the deadline. Uninhabited islands do not qualify under the market rules.

What smart money activity is visible for this Taiwan prediction market?

PolySpotter tracks $46,881 in smart money for this market and reports five recent alerts with the headline “Whale buying Yes quietly.”

Part of: Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Q: What would make this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to “Yes” if China commences a qualifying military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan.

This prediction market asks whether China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan by December 31, 2027. The market resolves to “Yes” if the defined offensive occurs and “No” otherwise; it currently tracks $46,881 in smart money and five recent “Whale buying Yes quietly” alerts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

26 smart money signals detected, totaling $757,837.

Categories: China, Politics, World, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Whale buying Yes quietly

A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.

A single wallet put $69k toward Yes, more than 16x the market’s recent 24h volume.
The trade is effectively buying Yes around 16¢, a low-probability entry with large upside if risk rises.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, but its resolved record is limited at 4 wins and 6 losses.

$46,881 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Repeat whale buying NO

A repeat large bettor is putting $70k back into the No side on a geopolitical market, a meaningful size relative to recent activity despite an unproven track record.

This wallet put $70k on No, a large re-entry after previously holding an $82.9k No position.
The bet was much larger than recent market activity, suggesting strong conviction on a quiet order flow window.
The wallet is only modestly profitable so far, but this is a concentrated macro bet at an 84¢ entry.

$20,307 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Whale buying Yes quietly

A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.

A single wallet put $69k toward Yes, more than 16x the market’s recent 24h volume.
The trade is effectively buying Yes around 16¢, a low-probability entry with large upside if risk rises.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, but its resolved record is limited at 4 wins and 6 losses.

$49,052 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Whale buying Yes quietly

A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.

A single wallet put $69k toward Yes, more than 16x the market’s recent 24h volume.
The trade is effectively buying Yes around 16¢, a low-probability entry with large upside if risk rises.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, but its resolved record is limited at 4 wins and 6 losses.

$28,745 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Repeat whale buying NO

A repeat large bettor is putting $70k back into the No side on a geopolitical market, a meaningful size relative to recent activity despite an unproven track record.

This wallet put $70k on No, a large re-entry after previously holding an $82.9k No position.
The bet was much larger than recent market activity, suggesting strong conviction on a quiet order flow window.
The wallet is only modestly profitable so far, but this is a concentrated macro bet at an 84¢ entry.

$41,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Whale buying Yes quietly

A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.

A single wallet put $69k toward Yes, more than 16x the market’s recent 24h volume.
The trade is effectively buying Yes around 16¢, a low-probability entry with large upside if risk rises.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, but its resolved record is limited at 4 wins and 6 losses.

$47,147 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Repeat whale buying NO

A repeat large bettor is putting $70k back into the No side on a geopolitical market, a meaningful size relative to recent activity despite an unproven track record.

This wallet put $70k on No, a large re-entry after previously holding an $82.9k No position.
The bet was much larger than recent market activity, suggesting strong conviction on a quiet order flow window.
The wallet is only modestly profitable so far, but this is a concentrated macro bet at an 84¢ entry.

$6,147 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Repeat whale buying NO

A repeat large bettor is putting $70k back into the No side on a geopolitical market, a meaningful size relative to recent activity despite an unproven track record.

This wallet put $70k on No, a large re-entry after previously holding an $82.9k No position.
The bet was much larger than recent market activity, suggesting strong conviction on a quiet order flow window.
The wallet is only modestly profitable so far, but this is a concentrated macro bet at an 84¢ entry.

$17,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Whale buying Yes quietly

A repeat-flagged wallet effectively bought about $69k of Yes at ~16¢, over 16x recent 24h volume on a quiet long-dated geopolitical market, though its resolved track record is not strong.

A single wallet put $69k toward Yes, more than 16x the market’s recent 24h volume.
The trade is effectively buying Yes around 16¢, a low-probability entry with large upside if risk rises.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, but its resolved record is limited at 4 wins and 6 losses.

$46,148 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Repeat whale buying NO

A repeat large bettor is putting $70k back into the No side on a geopolitical market, a meaningful size relative to recent activity despite an unproven track record.

This wallet put $70k on No, a large re-entry after previously holding an $82.9k No position.
The bet was much larger than recent market activity, suggesting strong conviction on a quiet order flow window.
The wallet is only modestly profitable so far, but this is a concentrated macro bet at an 84¢ entry.

$28,988 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%