What is the Iran leadership change prediction market?

It is a Polymarket prediction market on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will stop being Iran’s de facto leader at any point before the market’s June 30, 2027 resolution date.

When does the Iran leadership market resolve?

The scheduled resolution date is June 30, 2027, at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time, subject to the market’s stated resolution criteria.

What does the No outcome mean?

No means Mojtaba Khamenei remains Iran’s de facto leader throughout the market’s defined timeframe and none of the listed Yes conditions occur.

What smart money activity is tracked for this market?

PolySpotter tracks $4,450 in smart money for this market across one signal. The latest alert reports that a profitable bettor scaled into No.

Part of: Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Q: What would make this market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei is removed from power, detained, loses his position, or is otherwise prevented from acting as Iran’s de facto leader during the market timeframe.

This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran by June 30, 2027. It resolves Yes if he is removed, detained, loses his position, or is otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader; the supplied data does not include current Yes/No odds. The market shows $4,450 in tracked smart money and one signal, including a recent profitable bettor scaling into No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,450.

Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor scales into No

A profitable bettor is adding $4,450 to an already large No position in a relatively quiet market, though the evidence is moderate rather than overwhelming.

This bettor is up $31,941 lifetime with a 71% win rate across seven resolved bets.
The $4,450 purchase represented 53.7% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $36,291 existing No position.
The No thesis is consistent with the market's recent move from 83% to 80% implied probability for No.

$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

0xcc03...d5c0 — No, $36,291 (71% win rate)
0x9648...6825 — Yes, $18,068 (69% win rate)
0xe258...d084 — No, $11,334 (75% win rate)
0xcca9...4c9f — No, $6,139 (67% win rate)
0xefde...783d — Yes, $5,718 (51% win rate)
0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $5,448
0xe154...0b7f — Yes, $2,898 (10% win rate)
0xa8c6...44e8 — Yes, $2,531 (68% win rate)
0x122c...fbed — Yes, $2,491 (58% win rate)
0xf797...0bf2 — Yes, $2,058 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran leadership remains unchanged

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Putin exits in early 2027

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Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

324dIran leadership change by...?$4,450 tracked1 signalMojtabaayatollahPoliticsIran RegimeGeopoliticsIranKhameneiMojtaba KhameneiKhamenei outMojtaba out

Yes

31¢

70¢

Yes

31¢

70¢

Price History — “No”

80¢

73¢

66¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction