What does the Gaza foreign intervention prediction market ask?

It asks whether personnel from a country or entity that is neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity will begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, or security operation on the ground in Gaza by December 31, 2026.

Does entering Gaza's maritime territory count?

No. The rules specify that personnel must physically enter the land territory of the Gaza Strip. Entry into maritime territory alone does not qualify.

When does the Gaza intervention market resolve?

The market resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, based on the market's stated resolution criteria.

Where can I track smart money activity for this market?

PolySpotter tracks smart money signals and notable trader activity, including purchases or position changes involving the Yes and No outcomes.

Part of: Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?

Q: What would make this Gaza market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if qualifying foreign personnel physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip and begin an officially acknowledged operation before the deadline.

This Polymarket market asks whether officially acknowledged foreign police, security, military, or peacekeeping personnel will physically enter the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes if qualifying personnel from neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an operation on the ground; otherwise, it resolves No. Current market odds are not included in the supplied data.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,389.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Gaza, Israel, Middle East, World

Notable Trades

Profitable serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with a 78% win rate and nearly $495,000 profit is taking a fresh position on No at even odds.

This bettor has won 78% of 931 resolved trades and is up nearly $495,000.
They are making a fresh $1,250 bet on No at 50¢, implying foreign intervention is less likely than the market suggests.
The wallet has traded 767 markets across 614 events, providing a substantial track record behind this position.

$1,977 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

82% winner flips toward Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate is selling No, equivalent to taking Yes exposure at 35¢, though the trade may partly reflect profit-taking from an older No position.

This bettor has won 82% of 200 resolved trades and earned $112,904 in profit.
The wallet is a serial cross-market trader active across 34 events and 42 markets, with $175,367 in tracked trading volume.
Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 35¢, although the prior No position suggests some profit-taking may be involved.

$1,375 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Serial trader adds to No

A serial cross-market trader with 383 resolved bets is adding to an existing No position amid a sharp Yes price surge, though the wallet’s historical win rate does not clearly beat its average entry odds.

This wallet has traded across 60 events and 83 markets, with 383 resolved bets and a 74% win rate.
It is adding roughly $1,589 to No while Yes has surged 32% in one day.
The bet represents about 60% of recent market volume, in a market with a wide 14-point spread.

$1,993 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with a 78% win rate and nearly $495,000 profit is taking a fresh position on No at even odds.

This bettor has won 78% of 931 resolved trades and is up nearly $495,000.
They are making a fresh $1,250 bet on No at 50¢, implying foreign intervention is less likely than the market suggests.
The wallet has traded 767 markets across 614 events, providing a substantial track record behind this position.

$1,204 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with a 78% win rate and nearly $495,000 profit is taking a fresh position on No at even odds.

This bettor has won 78% of 931 resolved trades and is up nearly $495,000.
They are making a fresh $1,250 bet on No at 50¢, implying foreign intervention is less likely than the market suggests.
The wallet has traded 767 markets across 614 events, providing a substantial track record behind this position.

$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Serial trader adds to No

This wallet has traded across 60 events and 83 markets, with 383 resolved bets and a 74% win rate.
It is adding roughly $1,589 to No while Yes has surged 32% in one day.
The bet represents about 60% of recent market volume, in a market with a wide 14-point spread.

$1,589 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%