Part of: Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,205.

Categories: Tech, OpenAI, AI, Trump, Claude, Politics, anthropic, Big Tech

Notable Trades

78% winner leans YES

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 78% record and positive lifetime P&L effectively moved toward Yes despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $32K lifetime.
  • They sold No at 72¢, which is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 28¢.
  • The market has a wide spread and limited liquidity, so a sharp wallet’s move can be meaningful.

$1,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

97% winner buying No

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a very large resolved history, a 97% win rate, and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 2,020 resolved trades and is up $13k lifetime.
  • They bought $2.2k of No at 89¢ on a relatively quiet market.
  • The market is close to resolution, making this a high-conviction bet that no qualifying AI review action happens in time.

$2,157 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0x05df...882d Outcome 52679262, $19,108 (68% win rate)
  2. 0x5c53...8c30 Outcome 52679262, $10,000
  3. 0xa53e...93e6 Outcome 52679262, $6,960
  4. 0xe32b...626e Outcome 52679262, $5,976
  5. 0x7d9d...4c53 Outcome 52679262, $5,720
  6. 0xb986...4b60 Outcome 52679262, $935
  7. 0x0711...f03c Outcome 52679262, $825
  8. 0x048a...9be4 Outcome 52679262, $650
  9. 0x467c...3e57 Outcome 52679262, $648
  10. 0x4935...dfda Outcome 52679262, $503

Related Theses

Iranian blockade will persist through August

Covers 5 related markets

Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through August

Covers 2 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran deal in late May

Covers 2 related markets

Alex de Minaur will win the match

Covers 1 related market

Dzumhur beats Arnaldi

Covers 1 related market

Racing Club will not win

Covers 1 related market

Flavio Cobolli will beat Jodar

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Cruz Hewitt will beat Marcos Giron

Covers 1 related market

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

ResolvedTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?$3,205 tracked2 signalsTechOpenAIAITrumpClaudePoliticsanthropicBig Tech

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process. Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

53d ago

$1,048 on Yes at 28¢

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

56d ago

$2,157 on No at 89¢

Related Theses