Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
This prediction market tracks whether Fujimori wins the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a margin of 0.2% to 0.3% of valid votes. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official margin between the top two candidates. PolySpotter is tracking $1,071 in smart-money activity and 1 smart-money signal for this market, with live odds updating as traders react to polling, campaign news, and election results.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,054.
Categories: Elections, Peru Election, Global Elections, Peru, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable whale buys breakout
A highly profitable, very active wallet bought Yes into a sharp price breakout on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor is up over $1.0M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They bought Yes at 78¢ after the market broke far above its prior 32¢ range.
- The market has surged 26.5 percentage points in the past day, suggesting strong momentum behind the move.
$1,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Sharp profitable niche bettor
Surface because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate and large lifetime profits taking a fresh Yes position in a niche, relatively thin election-margin market.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $294k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 32¢ in a niche Peru election-margin market with only about $9k total volume.
- The market is thin with a wide spread, so a $2k buy is meaningful even though the position is currently marked down.
$1,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $97,784
- 0x88b5...205c — Yes, $30,265 (39% win rate)
- 0x629b...995a — Yes, $21,193 (52% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $12,823 (67% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $7,719 (78% win rate)
- 0xc78e...4718 — Yes, $6,874 (43% win rate)
- 0x9163...82ae — Yes, $6,335
- 0x47ae...ee94 — No, $5,323 (72% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $3,655 (69% win rate)
- 0x4676...e808 — Yes, $3,272
Related Theses
Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency
Covers 2 related markets
Neither Chong nor Oh wins
Covers 2 related markets
Roberto Sánchez wins Peru presidency
Covers 3 related markets
Choo wins Daegu mayoral race
Covers 2 related markets
Park or Kim wins Gyeongnam
Covers 2 related markets
Becerra or Steyer wins
Covers 2 related markets
Starmer exits in late May
Covers 4 related markets
Gallrein defeats Massie in primary
Covers 2 related markets
Fujimori wins by razor-thin margin
Covers 2 related markets
