Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
5 signals across 3 markets · $16,006 tracked
This event tracks Polymarket prediction-market odds for the margin of victory in Peru’s June 7, 2026 presidential runoff. Traders are pricing ultra-narrow outcome brackets, including whether Fujimori wins the second round by 0.3% to 0.4%, with PolySpotter currently tracking $2,599 in smart-money activity and a notable NO buy from a 90% winner.
Markets (3)
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?3 signals · $12,169 tracked
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?1 signal · $1,983 tracked
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?1 signal · $1,853 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable sharp hedging No
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $294k profit is taking a net No position despite some hedging on both sides.
$7,114Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 7.0 - Sharp profitable niche bettor
Surface because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate and large lifetime profits taking a fresh Yes position in a niche, relatively thin election-margin market.
$1,983Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.5 - 90% winner buys NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$212k P&L bought No on a narrow Peru election-margin outcome.
$2,599Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - 90% winner buys No
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and +$212k P&L bought No on a niche Peru election margin market.
$2,456Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 899 resolved bets is buying No on a niche Peru election margin market.
$1,853Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x23d81b…0288$9,098 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 78% wins
- 0xc23dc0…82c8$5,055 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 90% wins
- 0xecaa88…77a9$1,853 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the odds for the Peru 2026 second-round margin of victory?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing specific margin-of-victory brackets in the Peru presidential runoff. This event currently includes the 0.3%–0.4% Fujimori win bracket.
What does this Peru election prediction market cover?
It covers the winning margin between the top two candidates in the 2026 Peruvian presidential second round, measured as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,599 in smart-money activity across this event. The latest signal shows a 90% winner buying NO on the Fujimori 0.3%–0.4% win-margin bracket.
When does the Peru election margin market resolve?
The second round is scheduled for June 7, 2026. The market should resolve after official results establish the valid-vote percentages for the top two candidates.
How should I interpret a NO buy on the 0.3%–0.4% Fujimori bracket?
A NO buy means that trader is betting Fujimori will not win by that exact 0.3% to 0.4% margin. She could win by a different margin, lose, or the official margin could fall outside the bracket.