Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

This prediction market tracks whether Fujimori wins the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a margin of 0.2% to 0.3% of valid votes. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official margin between the top two candidates. PolySpotter is tracking $1,071 in smart-money activity and 1 smart-money signal for this market, with live odds updating as traders react to polling, campaign news, and election results.

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,054.

Categories: Elections, Peru Election, Global Elections, Peru, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable whale buys breakout

A highly profitable, very active wallet bought Yes into a sharp price breakout on a niche Peru election margin market.

  • This bettor is up over $1.0M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ after the market broke far above its prior 32¢ range.
  • The market has surged 26.5 percentage points in the past day, suggesting strong momentum behind the move.

$1,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Sharp profitable niche bettor

Surface because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate and large lifetime profits taking a fresh Yes position in a niche, relatively thin election-margin market.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $294k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 32¢ in a niche Peru election-margin market with only about $9k total volume.
  • The market is thin with a wide spread, so a $2k buy is meaningful even though the position is currently marked down.

$1,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $102,664
  2. 0x88b5...205c Yes, $34,892 (39% win rate)
  3. 0x629b...995a Yes, $21,193 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $12,823 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $7,719 (78% win rate)
  6. 0xc78e...4718 Yes, $6,874 (43% win rate)
  7. 0x9163...82ae Yes, $6,335
  8. 0x47ae...ee94 No, $5,323 (72% win rate)
  9. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $3,655 (69% win rate)
  10. 0x4676...e808 Yes, $3,272

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Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

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Neither Chong nor Oh wins

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Roberto Sánchez wins Peru presidency

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Choo wins Daegu mayoral race

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Park or Kim wins Gyeongnam

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Becerra or Steyer wins

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Starmer exits in late May

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Gallrein defeats Massie in primary

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Fujimori wins by razor-thin margin

Covers 2 related markets

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)$3,054 tracked2 signalsElectionsPeru ElectionGlobal ElectionsPeruPolitics
Yes
94¢
No
6¢

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “Yes
99¢
58¢
18¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

4d ago

$1,071 on Yes at 78¢

78¢94¢16¢

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

5d ago

$1,983 on Yes at 32¢

32¢94¢62¢

Related Theses