Part of: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

This prediction market asks whether Russell Fry will become the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, either through a special Republican primary or, if no special primary occurs, as the official GOP nominee for the November 3, 2026 election. The market is scheduled to resolve around August 11, 2026, with $1,266 in smart money tracked and recent profitable-wallet activity fading Fry.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,704.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, USA Election, Senate Primary, South Carolina, primary elections, Republican Primary, Lindsey Graham

Notable Trades

Profitable wallet fades Fry

A profitable high-volume wallet is adding a sizable No position in a relatively thin political market, with the trade helping push the market sharply away from Russell Fry.

  • This high-volume bettor is up about $153k lifetime and has put roughly $12k into No here.
  • The buy was large for this market and helped move No from 53¢ to about 67¢.
  • A wide spread and thin order book make this look like a confident political position, not routine flow.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable wallet fades Fry

A profitable high-volume wallet is adding a sizable No position in a relatively thin political market, with the trade helping push the market sharply away from Russell Fry.

  • This high-volume bettor is up about $153k lifetime and has put roughly $12k into No here.
  • The buy was large for this market and helped move No from 53¢ to about 67¢.
  • A wide spread and thin order book make this look like a confident political position, not routine flow.

$6,438 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1c14...0869 No, $4,375 (63% win rate)
  2. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $3,000 (85% win rate)
  3. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $2,438
  4. 0x28ca...5d19 Yes, $2,031 (71% win rate)
  5. 0x7803...9e91 Yes, $1,649
  6. 0x9cdd...3e97 No, $1,274 (90% win rate)
  7. 0x3089...92f6 Yes, $1,089 (33% win rate)
  8. 0xd24b...ef76 No, $1,000 (69% win rate)
  9. 0xdb97...eee8 No, $1,000 (78% win rate)
  10. 0xefac...c9a1 No, $779 (54% win rate)

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Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

23dSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner$7,704 tracked2 signalsPoliticsElectionsPrimariesUSA ElectionSenate PrimarySouth Carolinaprimary electionsRepublican PrimaryLindsey Graham
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Price History — “No
92¢
61¢
29¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

17h ago

$1,266 on No at 53¢

53¢90¢37¢

Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

1d ago

$6,438 on No at 53¢

53¢90¢37¢

Related Theses