South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
45 signals across 3 markets · $222,644 tracked · resolves Aug 11, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary and related GOP nominee outcome for the 2026 Senate race. The current child market focuses on whether Russell Fry will become the new Republican nominee, with PolySpotter tracking $6,438 in smart-money activity and a recent profitable-wallet signal fading Fry.
Markets (3)
- Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?24 signals · $102,262 tracked
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?17 signals · $96,595 tracked
- Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?4 signals · $23,788 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet cluster backs Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster added nearly $4.7K to Yes alongside a sharp price rise, with support from profitable and high-win-rate traders despite some existing positions.
$4,679Score: 9.9 - Four-wallet bearish exit cluster
Four experienced wallets coordinated $21.7K in Yes exits, coinciding with an 11.2-point daily decline and supported by a serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate.
$21,746Score: 9.6 - Coordinated No buying by proven bettors
Three wallets, including a highly profitable 97% winner and a serial trader, collectively bought $16,967 of No during a 360x volume spike.
$5,941Score: 7.9 - Three-wallet No conviction cluster
Three wallets concentrated $14.1K on No, including a large add to an existing position, while the market has fallen sharply and a serial cross-market trader participated.
$14,101Score: 6.4 - Sharp bettor leads three-wallet Yes cluster
Three wallets concentrated $11.1K into Yes amid a 134.8x volume spike, led by a highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge.
$10,637Score: 6.0 - Sharp serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is re-entering No at 83% in this Senate nominee market.
$1,440Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.9 - Sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 84% win rate and $1.12M profit is making a fresh $1,946 bet on Yes at 71¢.
$11,662Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.6 - Sharp bettor adds to No position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and 42-point edge is adding to a substantial No position at 30¢.
$2,416Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Sharp bettor adds to No position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and 42-point edge is adding to a substantial No position at 30¢.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - 82% win-rate bettor adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and $808,398 lifetime profit is adding to an existing Yes position as the market has risen 27% in a week.
$2,220Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0xdc41c3…dd7e$63,700 · 1 market · 17 alerts · 46% wins
- 0x23d81b…0288$38,347 · 2 markets · 9 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$14,461 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x000d25…758e$13,280 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x1c144e…0869$9,327 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$7,226 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$4,739 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
FAQs
What is the South Carolina Republican Senate primary prediction market about?
It covers the Republican nominee outcome for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, including a possible special primary or runoff. On this event page, the active market asks whether Russell Fry will be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina.
What are the odds on Russell Fry winning the GOP nomination?
The live odds are shown on the market page and move as traders buy and sell shares. PolySpotter adds context by highlighting smart-money activity, including a recent signal where a profitable wallet faded Fry.
Who is betting on this South Carolina Senate primary market?
Polymarket traders are pricing the outcome, while PolySpotter tracks activity from wallets with notable profit histories. Across this event, $6,438 in smart-money volume has been tracked so far.
What does “profitable wallet fades Fry” mean?
It means a wallet with a strong tracked performance history took a position against Russell Fry’s chances, or reduced exposure to him. It is not a guarantee of the outcome, but it can be a useful signal for market watchers.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on the winner of the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary, including any runoff. If no special primary occurs by the stated deadline, it resolves based on the official Republican nominee for the November 2026 Senate election.