Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,044.

Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Industry, Tech, Business, hack, Big Tech, outage

Notable Trades

New wallet buying No

A brand-new wallet made a meaningful one-sided bet on No in a moderately thin infrastructure outage market after a sharp price breakout, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite no track record yet.

  • A brand-new wallet opened a fresh $1.0k position on No in a market with only $3.0k of 24-hour volume
  • The trade came after a sharp price move, with No breaking about 32 points beyond its prior observed range
  • Buying No at 70¢ suggests the bettor sees the recent outage-risk move as overdone

$1,044 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xab19...3b87 No, $4,082
  2. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $4,000 (39% win rate)
  3. 0x852e...80a6 No, $1,498
  4. 0x0cb1...a76c Yes, $1,069
  5. 0x7c48...cf0c Yes, $1,036
  6. 0xf971...0a57 Yes, $878
  7. 0xe2cb...6e8f No, $850
  8. 0x2ef6...c761 No, $678
  9. 0x9bbc...d620 No, $543
  10. 0x43a6...8b32 No, $500

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Resolved$1,044 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsPoliticsIndustryTechBusinesshackBig Techoutage
Yes
19¢
No
82¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
83¢
74¢
65¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,044 on No at 70¢

70¢82¢12¢