Part of: Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?
This Berlin election prediction market compares whether CDU or AfD will receive more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026. The market resolves to the party with more votes, or 50-50 if both parties finish tied; live odds and smart money activity are tracked on the page.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,021.
Categories: World, Berlin, Germany, Politics, Elections, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Serial trader adds to CDU position
A serial cross-market trader added a sizable CDU position in an exceptionally thin market, though their historical results do not show a strong odds-adjusted edge.
- The $1,021 purchase was more than eight times the market's prior 24-hour volume.
- This wallet has traded 74 markets across 57 events and is adding to an existing CDU position.
- The 66% win rate across 2,214 resolved bets is notable, but the 84¢ average winning entry limits the evidence of a strong edge.
$1,021 on CDU | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x77a1...de3d — AfD, $1,700 (62% win rate)
- 0xe3f2...e1c1 — AfD, $1,465 (79% win rate)
- 0x0fc3...1329 — CDU, $1,395 (55% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — CDU, $1,000 (55% win rate)
- 0x77fb...266c — CDU, $734 (74% win rate)
- 0xc8b9...b836 — AfD, $684 (65% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — CDU, $449 (94% win rate)
- 0x1ee9...197f — CDU, $386 (64% win rate)
- 0x127c...b061 — AfD, $363
- 0x21ff...0d71 — AfD, $320
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