Part of: Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,966.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Politics, Venezuela, maduro
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet active
A repeat new-wallet bettor with $23.4k previously flagged is making another meaningful No buy, though prior closed positions on both sides make the signal more about active informed trading than clean directional conviction.
- This new wallet has now been flagged 10 times, with $23.4k in notable bets across 3 positions.
- They bought No at 80¢ while the market sits near 78¢, suggesting a view that release is less likely than current odds imply.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes recently, so this is a contrarian bet against the latest momentum.
$2,299 on No
Repeat new wallet in volume spike
A repeat-flagged new wallet is actively trading over $11.5k on a politically sensitive custody market during a 22x volume spike, though the rapid buy/sell churn makes conviction less clean.
- A new wallet has now been flagged 8 times for large bets, with $18.7k total flagged activity.
- This trade came during a 22x volume spike, and the market has moved 11.5 points this week.
- The latest effective direction is buying No around 80¢, but prior quick flips make this less clean than a simple conviction bet.
$11,592 on No
New wallet in dormant market
A new wallet placed a $2.1k No bet in a completely inactive political custody market, suggesting possible fresh conviction despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet put $2.1k on No despite this market having $0 volume in the last 24 hours.
- The bet is meaningful for a quiet order book, taking a position worth about 21% of available liquidity.
- This is a political custody market where new information could matter, though the wallet has no proven track record yet.
$2,075 on No
Top Holders
- 0x3022...59c1 — No, $2,044 (87% win rate)
- 0x88b6...3cff — Yes, $1,799
- 0x5a79...6296 — No, $1,389 (90% win rate)
- 0xbdde...c019 — No, $1,296 (86% win rate)
- 0x0b64...49bd — No, $1,272
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $766 (39% win rate)
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — Yes, $600 (75% win rate)
- 0x4cb5...b536 — No, $556
- 0x717a...977c — Yes, $537
- 0x61b9...c617 — Yes, $460
