Part of: Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Cuba’s Communist Party (PCC) will cease to exercise de facto governing control by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Recent smart-money alerts show multiple traders buying No, including signals from bettors with 86%–88% historical win rates; the exact live market price may change over time.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
28 smart money signals detected, totaling $92,195.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Cuba, PCC, Overthrow, Communist Party of Cuba, Miguel Diaz-Canel, Castro
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A historically profitable, high-volume trader is adding $2,700 to an existing No position in a relatively quiet market, though the 90¢ entry offers limited upside.
- This trader is up about $495,000 across more than 1,000 resolved bets and has positioned $2,700 more on No.
- The trade is sizable relative to the market’s $5,894 in 24-hour volume, and adds to an existing No position entered at 78¢.
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Prolific cross-market trader buys Yes
A prolific, highly profitable cross-market trader is taking a meaningful Yes-equivalent position in a thinly traded political market, though their win rate is only modestly above their average winning odds.
- This trader has won 91% of 199 resolved bets and earned $424,344 overall.
- They sold $2,738 of No at 89¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢—about 64% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- They have traded across 45 events and 96 markets, though their 91% win rate is close to their 88¢ average winning price.
$2,738 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate bought $12k of No, making the wallet’s track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $696k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events and $1.9M in tracked volume.
- The $12k No buy at 82¢ has already moved in their favor to about 84¢.
$3,628 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
88% winner buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate bought $12k of No, making the wallet’s track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $696k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events and $1.9M in tracked volume.
- The $12k No buy at 82¢ has already moved in their favor to about 84¢.
$1,613 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
88% winner buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate bought $12k of No, making the wallet’s track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $696k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events and $1.9M in tracked volume.
- The $12k No buy at 82¢ has already moved in their favor to about 84¢.
$1,972 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
88% winner buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate bought $12k of No, making the wallet’s track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $696k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events and $1.9M in tracked volume.
- The $12k No buy at 82¢ has already moved in their favor to about 84¢.
$1,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
88% winner buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate bought $12k of No, making the wallet’s track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $696k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events and $1.9M in tracked volume.
- The $12k No buy at 82¢ has already moved in their favor to about 84¢.
$3,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp serial macro bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate and +$502k P&L bought No on a long-dated Cuba regime-change market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $502k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 65 markets with $1.6M deployed.
- Buying No at 77¢ signals confidence the Cuban regime remains in control through 2026.
$1,441 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% winner buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% resolved win rate bought $12k of No, making the wallet’s track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $696k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events and $1.9M in tracked volume.
- The $12k No buy at 82¢ has already moved in their favor to about 84¢.
$1,117 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp serial macro bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate and +$502k P&L bought No on a long-dated Cuba regime-change market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $502k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 65 markets with $1.6M deployed.
- Buying No at 77¢ signals confidence the Cuban regime remains in control through 2026.
$2,681 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x8afa...adb6 — No, $16,584 (98% win rate)
- 0x2039...a807 — Yes, $13,042 (61% win rate)
- 0x02a1...dd72 — No, $9,001
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $8,509 (53% win rate)
- 0x5685...62e2 — No, $7,349 (92% win rate)
- 0x8bd8...8914 — Yes, $6,754
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $6,000 (61% win rate)
- 0xaec3...22df — Yes, $5,939 (73% win rate)
- 0x0d15...c454 — No, $5,507 (72% win rate)
- 0x1181...9e90 — Yes, $5,000 (71% win rate)
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