Part of: Fed rate cut by...?
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
This Polymarket asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will be cut at any point from December 16, 2025 through the completion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market includes emergency rate cuts and has $4,251 in tracked smart money activity across 1 signal on PolySpotter. Resolution is tied to the December 2026 Fed meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, with a fallback No resolution if no meeting or qualifying cut occurs by January 7, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,414.
Categories: Fed, Jerome Powell, Economy, Economic Policy, Fed Rates, Finance
Notable Trades
Contrarian macro whale
A single bettor bought $4.3k of Yes in a very quiet Fed market after a major price collapse, creating a meaningful contrarian signal despite no strong wallet track record.
- This bettor put $4.3k on Yes, about 8x the market’s entire 24h volume.
- Yes has fallen sharply from a prior 63–80¢ range to 29¢, so this is a clear contrarian dip buy.
- The market is thin, with only $535 traded in 24h, making this size stand out.
$4,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Repeat new-wallet macro whale
A 12-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets totaling over $20k and just bought $4.2k of No at 41¢, a meaningful size for this market despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 12-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts totaling $20.6k
- The latest trade bought No at 41¢ with a $4.2k order, bigger than the market's recent activity at the time
- The market has drifted down over the past week, and this bettor is adding a clear macro view at 41¢
$4,163 on No
Top Holders
- 0x2657...42e6 — Yes, $17,813 (50% win rate)
- 0xaf45...ec7d — No, $13,046 (69% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $12,561 (63% win rate)
- 0xc6d0...4bad — No, $11,735
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $11,370 (47% win rate)
- 0xa309...4cf2 — No, $6,589
- 0xae89...90b8 — No, $5,531 (93% win rate)
- 0xffd2...d7ae — Yes, $5,160 (43% win rate)
- 0x5351...c7ed — Yes, $3,640 (72% win rate)
- 0x6e94...3d35 — Yes, $1,949 (40% win rate)
