Part of: Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,516.

Categories: Fed, Jerome Powell, Economy, Economic Policy, Fed Rates, Finance

Notable Trades

Serial macro cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with large same-event positioning is adding to a No thesis on a quiet Fed-rate market, though the wallet’s headline win rate is partly driven by heavy favorites.

This trader has bet across 157 events and is positioning across 5 related Fed markets with $31K total exposure.
They are adding to an existing No position, with this trade equal to 71% of the market’s 24h volume.
The wallet is profitable overall, up $66K across about $20M invested, but often buys heavy favorites.

$2,102 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Contrarian macro whale

A single bettor bought $4.3k of Yes in a very quiet Fed market after a major price collapse, creating a meaningful contrarian signal despite no strong wallet track record.

This bettor put $4.3k on Yes, about 8x the market’s entire 24h volume.
Yes has fallen sharply from a prior 63–80¢ range to 29¢, so this is a clear contrarian dip buy.
The market is thin, with only $535 traded in 24h, making this size stand out.

$4,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

Repeat new-wallet macro whale

A 12-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets totaling over $20k and just bought $4.2k of No at 41¢, a meaningful size for this market despite no resolved track record yet.

This 12-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts totaling $20.6k
The latest trade bought No at 41¢ with a $4.2k order, bigger than the market's recent activity at the time
The market has drifted down over the past week, and this bettor is adding a clear macro view at 41¢

$4,163 on No